Probability puzzle: Classroom bingo
Photo by CDC on UnsplashA primary schoolteacher is playing a game with her class. She…
Michael FletcherDecember 13, 2021
Probability puzzle: Higher or lower?
Once upon a time, Play Your Cards Right was a popular Australian and British TV…
Returning to schools and universities in the time of coronavirus: some statistical suggestions
Pupils returned to school in England, Wales and Northern Ireland after the summer break mainly…
Giovanni Sebastiani and Julian StanderOctober 7, 2020
Bayes’ theorem and Covid-19 testing
Photo by Graham Ruttan on UnsplashI’m writing this article from the country with more confirmed…
Michael A. LewisApril 22, 2020
The ties that bind: A moment-ratio diagram for probability distributions
A moment-ratio diagram allows a modeller to see several probability distributions at one time. The…
Lawrence M. Leemis and Raghu PasupathyJune 20, 2019
Statistics in court: Incorrect probabilities
Although both the law and statistical theory have foundations that rest on formal rules and…
Jim Norton and George DivineApril 9, 2019
Preventing cancer: mere rhetoric or a promising plan?
Photo by Ken Treloar on UnsplashIn December 1971, two years after the successful Apollo 11…
Mats Julius Stensrud and Morten ValbergFebruary 13, 2019
Playing with risk
Imagine you hold three six-sided dice in your hand. Now throw them, and before they…
Brian TarranDecember 3, 2018
Still running against the odds: revisiting the London Marathon ballot
Monday 15 October had a lot of people eagerly awaiting the postman to deliver the…
Anthony HatswellOctober 29, 2018
Betting on a royal birth: how many babies will be born the same day?
On 4 September 2017, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge – better known as “William…
Shomoita Alam and James HanleyFebruary 22, 2018
How to explain screening test outcomes
Consider the following problem: “The serum test screens pregnant women for babies with Down's syndrome.…
Tim BrockApril 27, 2017
Does Donald Trump “defy all odds”?
When FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver predicted in June that Donald Trump had a 20 per…
Bernard Baffour and Joshua BonOctober 19, 2016
Closing the communications gap
Professor Dame Anne Glover has spent her entire career generating scientific knowledge; knowledge that has,…
Brian TarranSeptember 9, 2016
Belgium to win Euro 2016? A Q&A on probabilistic predictions
England fans might have been disappointed to see their football team crash out of the…
Brian TarranJune 30, 2016
Forecast error: European referenda, past and present
Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016
Statistically speaking… How long can Pope Francis expect to live?
When elected pope of the Roman Catholic Church on 13 March 2013, the Argentinian priest…
Julian Stander, Luciana Dalla Valle and Mario Cortina BorjaFebruary 18, 2016
Ask a statistician: What are the chances of World War III?
In the second instalment of our new 'Ask A Statistician' column, Peter McIntyre, a pharmaceutical…
Brian TarranJanuary 5, 2016
How Frank Wilcoxon helped statisticians walk the non-parametric path
Part of the job of a statistician is to make inferences about a population from…
Mario Cortina Borja & Julian StanderDecember 7, 2015
Is India’s heatwave a freak event?
A heatwave over India that started on May 21 and has produced India’s highest recorded…
Hugo WinterJune 2, 2015
Han Solo and Bayesian priors
One of the most memorable errors in statistical analysis is a scene from The Empire…
Will KurtMarch 27, 2015
