Archive Probability puzzle: Classroom bingo Photo by CDC on UnsplashA primary schoolteacher is playing a game with her class. She…Michael FletcherDecember 13, 2021
Archive Probability puzzle: Higher or lower? Once upon a time, Play Your Cards Right was a popular Australian and British TV…Michael FletcherAugust 11, 2021
Archive Returning to schools and universities in the time of coronavirus: some statistical suggestions Pupils returned to school in England, Wales and Northern Ireland after the summer break mainly…Giovanni Sebastiani and Julian StanderOctober 7, 2020
Archive Bayes’ theorem and Covid-19 testing Photo by Graham Ruttan on UnsplashI’m writing this article from the country with more confirmed…Michael A. LewisApril 22, 2020
Archive The ties that bind: A moment-ratio diagram for probability distributions A moment-ratio diagram allows a modeller to see several probability distributions at one time. The…Lawrence M. Leemis and Raghu PasupathyJune 20, 2019
Archive Statistics in court: Incorrect probabilities Although both the law and statistical theory have foundations that rest on formal rules and…Jim Norton and George DivineApril 9, 2019
Archive Preventing cancer: mere rhetoric or a promising plan? Photo by Ken Treloar on UnsplashIn December 1971, two years after the successful Apollo 11…Mats Julius Stensrud and Morten ValbergFebruary 13, 2019
Archive Playing with risk Imagine you hold three six-sided dice in your hand. Now throw them, and before they…Brian TarranDecember 3, 2018
Archive Still running against the odds: revisiting the London Marathon ballot Monday 15 October had a lot of people eagerly awaiting the postman to deliver the…Anthony HatswellOctober 29, 2018
Archive Betting on a royal birth: how many babies will be born the same day? On 4 September 2017, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge – better known as “William…Shomoita Alam and James HanleyFebruary 22, 2018
Archive How to explain screening test outcomes Consider the following problem: “The serum test screens pregnant women for babies with Down's syndrome.…Tim BrockApril 27, 2017
Archive Does Donald Trump “defy all odds”? When FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver predicted in June that Donald Trump had a 20 per…Bernard Baffour and Joshua BonOctober 19, 2016
Archive Closing the communications gap Professor Dame Anne Glover has spent her entire career generating scientific knowledge; knowledge that has,…Brian TarranSeptember 9, 2016
Archive Belgium to win Euro 2016? A Q&A on probabilistic predictions England fans might have been disappointed to see their football team crash out of the…Brian TarranJune 30, 2016
Archive Forecast error: European referenda, past and present Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016
Archive Statistically speaking… How long can Pope Francis expect to live? When elected pope of the Roman Catholic Church on 13 March 2013, the Argentinian priest…Julian Stander, Luciana Dalla Valle and Mario Cortina BorjaFebruary 18, 2016
Archive Ask a statistician: What are the chances of World War III? In the second instalment of our new 'Ask A Statistician' column, Peter McIntyre, a pharmaceutical…Brian TarranJanuary 5, 2016
Archive How Frank Wilcoxon helped statisticians walk the non-parametric path Part of the job of a statistician is to make inferences about a population from…Mario Cortina Borja & Julian StanderDecember 7, 2015
Archive Is India’s heatwave a freak event? A heatwave over India that started on May 21 and has produced India’s highest recorded…Hugo WinterJune 2, 2015
Han Solo and Bayesian priors One of the most memorable errors in statistical analysis is a scene from The Empire…Will KurtMarch 27, 2015