Forecast error: 2022 French presidential election predictors
In 2022 Emmanuel Macron, the President of the French Republic, sought re-election against opponents of…
Timothy Martyn HillJuly 15, 2022
References: “What’s both massive and slender, and thin but convincing?”
References for Rob Gandy's article, "What’s both massive and slender, and thin but convincing?", published…
Forecast error: 2020 US presidential election predictors
Photo by Clay Banks on UnsplashEarly in 2020 the 45th President of the United States…
Timothy Martyn HillJuly 28, 2021
Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting
In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house…
Timothy Martyn HillFebruary 22, 2021
You can trust the polls in 2018, if you read them carefully
On the morning of 8 November 2016, many Americans went to bed confident that Hillary…
Josh Pasek and Michael TraugottSeptember 27, 2018
Forecast error: Are polls getting worse at predicting elections?
Voting intention polls appear to have an accuracy problem. The UK House of Lords recently…
Timothy Martyn HillAugust 7, 2018
We, the millennials: The statistical significance of political significance
Kevin Lin, winner of the 2017 Statistical Excellence Award for Early-Career Writing, explores political engagement…
Kevin LinNovember 29, 2017
Forecast error: Predictors of the 2017 UK general election
On 18 April 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a snap general election for…
Timothy Martyn HillJuly 5, 2017
UK general election: Five steps to make sense of the latest polls
Unlike the 2015 general election, when the polls were essentially static (and wrong) throughout, the…
Nigel MarriottJune 6, 2017
Predicting the UK’s snap general election
https://unsplash.com/@jamie452I have decided to build a model to try to predict the results of the…
Gianluca BaioMay 30, 2017
What’s happened to the polls since the 2015 UK election?
When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for 8 June 2017, it…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 15, 2017
How wrong were the presidential polls and predictions?
On 14 July 2016 the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was polling seven points ahead…
Timothy Martyn HillNovember 23, 2016
Four possible explanations why most of the polls got the US election wrong
In the US presidential election, the final poll of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics…
Paul WhiteleyNovember 11, 2016
Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors
On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…
Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016
Voting matters – August 2016 issue preview
Some readers may find it ironic that, less than two months after the UK voted…
Brian TarranAugust 9, 2016
Yes, the polls were wrong. But it is time we understood their limitations
“General election polls in 2015 ‘the most inaccurate’,” said the BBC. “Polling shake-up planned after…
Brian TarranApril 5, 2016
Statistically speaking… How long can Pope Francis expect to live?
When elected pope of the Roman Catholic Church on 13 March 2013, the Argentinian priest…
Julian Stander, Luciana Dalla Valle and Mario Cortina BorjaFebruary 18, 2016
Where is Donald Trump’s statistician?
When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for President of the United States, he included a…
Carlos Alberto Gómez GrajalesJuly 30, 2015
Electoral bias in the UK after the general election
After the shock result of the UK’s 2015 general election, one could forgive Labour and…
Charles Pattie & Ron JohnstonJune 26, 2015
Making mistakes, minimising error – June 2015 issue preview
There are many opportunities for us to make wrong decisions in life – whether it…
Brian TarranJune 16, 2015
