Winner announced for early-career writing award
UPDATE: “The flying bomb and the actuary”, by Liam Shaw and Luke Shaw, was last night…
Brian TarranJuly 12, 2019
Predicting the UK’s snap general election
https://unsplash.com/@jamie452I have decided to build a model to try to predict the results of the…
Four possible explanations why most of the polls got the US election wrong
In the US presidential election, the final poll of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics…
Paul WhiteleyNovember 11, 2016
Voting matters – August 2016 issue preview
Some readers may find it ironic that, less than two months after the UK voted…
Brian TarranAugust 9, 2016
EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again
Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was…
John CurticeJune 27, 2016
The EU referendum – one week to go: extracting insights from Facebook using R
A referendum is being held on 23 June to provide an answer to the question…
JulianJune 20, 2016
Forecast error: European referenda, past and present
Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016
Yes, the polls were wrong. But it is time we understood their limitations
“General election polls in 2015 ‘the most inaccurate’,” said the BBC. “Polling shake-up planned after…
Brian TarranApril 5, 2016
In Brexit vote, economic arguments may trump cultural concerns, says study
On 23 June, the United Kingdom will vote on whether to remain a member of…
Brian TarranFebruary 25, 2016
Politics is broken: The Guardian’s Alberto Nardelli on the fragmentation of party support
It’s almost the end of party conference season in the UK – a time in…
Brian TarranOctober 8, 2015
Where is Donald Trump’s statistician?
When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for President of the United States, he included a…
Carlos Alberto Gómez GrajalesJuly 30, 2015
Electoral bias in the UK after the general election
After the shock result of the UK’s 2015 general election, one could forgive Labour and…
Charles Pattie & Ron JohnstonJune 26, 2015
Pollgate: hindsight is wonderful but it doesn’t answer what went wrong
After the pre-election polls spectacularly failed to predict a Conservative majority, many are seriously asking…
Oz FlanaganJune 11, 2015
How trustworthy are electronic voting systems in the US?
When you do your civic duty, and cast your vote for the various candidates and…
Beth ClarksonJune 5, 2015
How much did the polls vary from the general election result?
In the run up to polling day earlier this month, a large number of opinion…
Nambassa NakatuddeMay 29, 2015
Was anyone right about the pre-election polls?
There has been much wailing and gnashing of blogs since the dismal performance of the…
David SpiegelhalterMay 18, 2015
Why the polls got it so wrong in the British election
If the opinion polls had proved accurate, we would have woken up on the morning…
Leighton Vaughan WilliamsMay 11, 2015
The political pollsters’ report card: the statisticians’ verdict
Election season is now well underway in the UK and every scandal, botched interview and…
Deirdre Toher & Robin EvansMarch 11, 2015
DWTS voting system needs a makeover
On October 14, Christina Milian stood under the spotlight with the threat of elimination during…
Stephanie KovalchikNovember 14, 2013
Kenya, Elections and violence: beating Swords into shillings?
Kenya has been having elections. The results were announced on Saturday. Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya's richest…
Julian ChampkinMarch 11, 2013
