Archive Four possible explanations why most of the polls got the US election wrong In the US presidential election, the final poll of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics…Paul WhiteleyNovember 11, 2016
Archive EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was…John CurticeJune 27, 2016
Archive Yes, the polls were wrong. But it is time we understood their limitations “General election polls in 2015 ‘the most inaccurate’,” said the BBC. “Polling shake-up planned after…Brian TarranApril 5, 2016
News Making mistakes, minimising error – June 2015 issue preview There are many opportunities for us to make wrong decisions in life – whether it…Brian TarranJune 16, 2015
Archive Was anyone right about the pre-election polls? There has been much wailing and gnashing of blogs since the dismal performance of the…David SpiegelhalterMay 18, 2015
Han Solo and Bayesian priors One of the most memorable errors in statistical analysis is a scene from The Empire…Will KurtMarch 27, 2015
Archive Southwark Sapphire Unit – the worst rape statistics ever? Rape is probably the most under-reported crime that there is, for all sorts of understandable…Julian ChampkinFebruary 28, 2013