Archive Probability puzzle: A certain bet Photo by Sandro Schuh on UnsplashFor fans of the England soccer team, this summer’s European…Michael FletcherOctober 18, 2021
Archive Forecast error: 2020 US presidential election predictors Photo by Clay Banks on UnsplashEarly in 2020 the 45th President of the United States…Timothy Martyn HillJuly 28, 2021
Archive Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house…Timothy Martyn HillFebruary 22, 2021
Archive Has English league football become less exciting? Bill Shankly, a former manager of Liverpool Football Club, once said: “Some people believe football…Statso, Julian Stander and Mario Cortina BorjaNovember 26, 2020
Archive Who will win the 2019 Rugby World Cup? Photo by Hanson Lu on UnsplashWill the New Zealand All Blacks win their third successive…Niven WinchesterSeptember 9, 2019
Archive Six Nations rugby: increased predictability (despite England upsets) With the Six Nations rugby championship kicking off this weekend, we have two years of…Ray StefaniJanuary 28, 2019
Archive Forecast error: Predictors of the 2017 UK general election On 18 April 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a snap general election for…Timothy Martyn HillJuly 5, 2017
Archive The value of an Oscar, and the science of sequels The annual Academy Awards ceremony take place this Sunday, 26 February. Nominees for one of…Robert Langkjær-BainFebruary 22, 2017
Archive 6 Nations Rugby – who’s the biggest overachiever? The 6 Nations Rugby championship kicks off in a little over three weeks. England is…Ray StefaniJanuary 12, 2017
Archive The Wenger hypothesis: How many points to win the English Premier League? Arsène Wenger (pictured) has been manager of Arsenal Football Club since 1996, making him the…Peter MartinDecember 1, 2016
Archive Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016
Archive Belgium to win Euro 2016? A Q&A on probabilistic predictions England fans might have been disappointed to see their football team crash out of the…Brian TarranJune 30, 2016
Archive EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was…John CurticeJune 27, 2016
Archive Forecast error: European referenda, past and present Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016
Archive Overachievers and underachievers at the last three Rugby World Cups It doesn’t take a sophisticated analysis to conclude that the England team was a disappointment…Ray StefaniFebruary 23, 2016
News The 10 most-read articles of 2015 In a year that has seen Star Wars return to the big screen, it is…Brian TarranDecember 23, 2015
Archive Who will win the Rugby World Cup? The (semi) final reckoning It’s the semi-final weekend in the Rugby World Cup (RWC), with South Africa, New Zealand,…Niven WinchesterOctober 22, 2015
Archive Who will win the Rugby World Cup? As Yogi Berra, once said: ‘It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future’. Like…Niven WinchesterAugust 27, 2015
Archive Has the hot hand effect finally been proven? A popular belief among sportswriters and broadcasters says that a team that's been successful, should…Phil BirnbaumAugust 3, 2015
Archive Why the polls got it so wrong in the British election If the opinion polls had proved accurate, we would have woken up on the morning…Leighton Vaughan WilliamsMay 11, 2015