Probability puzzle: A certain bet
Photo by Sandro Schuh on UnsplashFor fans of the England soccer team, this summer’s European…
Michael FletcherOctober 18, 2021
Forecast error: 2020 US presidential election predictors
Photo by Clay Banks on UnsplashEarly in 2020 the 45th President of the United States…
Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting
In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house…
Timothy Martyn HillFebruary 22, 2021
Has English league football become less exciting?
Bill Shankly, a former manager of Liverpool Football Club, once said: “Some people believe football…
Statso, Julian Stander and Mario Cortina BorjaNovember 26, 2020
Who will win the 2019 Rugby World Cup?
Photo by Hanson Lu on UnsplashWill the New Zealand All Blacks win their third successive…
Niven WinchesterSeptember 9, 2019
Six Nations rugby: increased predictability (despite England upsets)
With the Six Nations rugby championship kicking off this weekend, we have two years of…
Ray StefaniJanuary 28, 2019
Forecast error: Predictors of the 2017 UK general election
On 18 April 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a snap general election for…
Timothy Martyn HillJuly 5, 2017
The value of an Oscar, and the science of sequels
The annual Academy Awards ceremony take place this Sunday, 26 February. Nominees for one of…
Robert Langkjær-BainFebruary 22, 2017
6 Nations Rugby – who’s the biggest overachiever?
The 6 Nations Rugby championship kicks off in a little over three weeks. England is…
Ray StefaniJanuary 12, 2017
The Wenger hypothesis: How many points to win the English Premier League?
Arsène Wenger (pictured) has been manager of Arsenal Football Club since 1996, making him the…
Peter MartinDecember 1, 2016
Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors
On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…
Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016
Belgium to win Euro 2016? A Q&A on probabilistic predictions
England fans might have been disappointed to see their football team crash out of the…
Brian TarranJune 30, 2016
EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again
Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was…
John CurticeJune 27, 2016
Forecast error: European referenda, past and present
Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016
Overachievers and underachievers at the last three Rugby World Cups
It doesn’t take a sophisticated analysis to conclude that the England team was a disappointment…
Ray StefaniFebruary 23, 2016
The 10 most-read articles of 2015
In a year that has seen Star Wars return to the big screen, it is…
Brian TarranDecember 23, 2015
Who will win the Rugby World Cup? The (semi) final reckoning
It’s the semi-final weekend in the Rugby World Cup (RWC), with South Africa, New Zealand,…
Niven WinchesterOctober 22, 2015
Who will win the Rugby World Cup?
As Yogi Berra, once said: ‘It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future’. Like…
Niven WinchesterAugust 27, 2015
Has the hot hand effect finally been proven?
A popular belief among sportswriters and broadcasters says that a team that's been successful, should…
Phil BirnbaumAugust 3, 2015
Why the polls got it so wrong in the British election
If the opinion polls had proved accurate, we would have woken up on the morning…
Leighton Vaughan WilliamsMay 11, 2015
