Appendix: Did “Trumpists” perform worse in US Senate election polls?
Data We used data from the sources listed below: 1. Ballotpedia. Endorsements by Donald Trump.…
Sina Chen and John KörtnerMay 16, 2022
You can trust the polls in 2018, if you read them carefully
On the morning of 8 November 2016, many Americans went to bed confident that Hillary…
Forecast error: Are polls getting worse at predicting elections?
Voting intention polls appear to have an accuracy problem. The UK House of Lords recently…
Timothy Martyn HillAugust 7, 2018
UK general election: Five steps to make sense of the latest polls
Unlike the 2015 general election, when the polls were essentially static (and wrong) throughout, the…
Nigel MarriottJune 6, 2017
Predicting the UK’s snap general election
https://unsplash.com/@jamie452I have decided to build a model to try to predict the results of the…
Gianluca BaioMay 30, 2017
What’s happened to the polls since the 2015 UK election?
When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for 8 June 2017, it…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 15, 2017
Four possible explanations why most of the polls got the US election wrong
In the US presidential election, the final poll of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics…
Paul WhiteleyNovember 11, 2016
Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors
On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…
Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016
Does Donald Trump “defy all odds”?
When FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver predicted in June that Donald Trump had a 20 per…
Bernard Baffour and Joshua BonOctober 19, 2016
EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again
Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was…
John CurticeJune 27, 2016
Forecast error: European referenda, past and present
Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016
Yes, the polls were wrong. But it is time we understood their limitations
“General election polls in 2015 ‘the most inaccurate’,” said the BBC. “Polling shake-up planned after…
Brian TarranApril 5, 2016
Voodoo polls are bad news: here’s how to spot and stop them
"Over a third of students ‘no longer wish to study medicine’ amid the junior doctors’…
Robert FordJanuary 20, 2016
Making mistakes, minimising error – June 2015 issue preview
There are many opportunities for us to make wrong decisions in life – whether it…
Brian TarranJune 16, 2015
Pollgate: hindsight is wonderful but it doesn’t answer what went wrong
After the pre-election polls spectacularly failed to predict a Conservative majority, many are seriously asking…
Oz FlanaganJune 11, 2015
How much did the polls vary from the general election result?
In the run up to polling day earlier this month, a large number of opinion…
Nambassa NakatuddeMay 29, 2015
Was anyone right about the pre-election polls?
There has been much wailing and gnashing of blogs since the dismal performance of the…
David SpiegelhalterMay 18, 2015
Why the polls got it so wrong in the British election
If the opinion polls had proved accurate, we would have woken up on the morning…
Leighton Vaughan WilliamsMay 11, 2015
The political pollsters’ report card: the statisticians’ verdict
Election season is now well underway in the UK and every scandal, botched interview and…
Deirdre Toher & Robin EvansMarch 11, 2015
