Timothy Martyn Hill, Author at Significance magazine

Archive

Appendices to ‘Fatal error: Who is winning in the war between Russia and Ukraine?’?

APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES : Theory of Victory, Turkey and Russian mobilization https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/how-wars-end and https://www.amazon.com/Between-War-Peace-America-Ends/dp/1439194610…

Timothy Martyn HillSeptember 5, 2023

Features

Forecast error: 2022 French presidential election predictors

In 2022 Emmanuel Macron, the President of the French Republic, sought re-election against opponents of…

Timothy Martyn HillJuly 15, 2022

Archive

Forecast error: 2020 US presidential election predictors

Photo by Clay Banks on UnsplashEarly in 2020 the 45th President of the United States…

Timothy Martyn HillJuly 28, 2021

Archive

Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting

In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house…

Timothy Martyn HillFebruary 22, 2021

Archive

Forecast error: POTUS 2020

Photo by Tiffany Tertipes on UnsplashAn election to the office of President of the United…

Timothy Martyn HillOctober 27, 2020

Archive

Forecast error: Are polls getting worse at predicting elections?

Voting intention polls appear to have an accuracy problem. The UK House of Lords recently…

Timothy Martyn HillAugust 7, 2018

Archive

Forecast error: Predictors of the 2017 UK general election

On 18 April 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a snap general election for…

Timothy Martyn HillJuly 5, 2017

Archive

What’s happened to the polls since the 2015 UK election?

When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for 8 June 2017, it…

Timothy Martyn HillMay 15, 2017

Archive

How wrong were the presidential polls and predictions?

On 14 July 2016 the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was polling seven points ahead…

Timothy Martyn HillNovember 23, 2016

Archive

Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors

On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…

Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016

Archive

Forecast error: European referenda, past and present

Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…

Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016

Archive

Predicting elections: who’s the most accurate?

Predicting the future is not easy, but there is no shortage of pundits willing to…

Timothy Martyn HillApril 9, 2015