Forecast error: 2020 US presidential election predictors
Photo by Clay Banks on UnsplashEarly in 2020 the 45th President of the United States…
Timothy Martyn HillJuly 28, 2021
UK general election: Five steps to make sense of the latest polls
Unlike the 2015 general election, when the polls were essentially static (and wrong) throughout, the…
What’s happened to the polls since the 2015 UK election?
When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for 8 June 2017, it…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 15, 2017
Four possible explanations why most of the polls got the US election wrong
In the US presidential election, the final poll of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics…
Paul WhiteleyNovember 11, 2016
EU referendum – how the polls got it wrong again
Estimating the likely outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was…
John CurticeJune 27, 2016
Making mistakes, minimising error – June 2015 issue preview
There are many opportunities for us to make wrong decisions in life – whether it…
Brian TarranJune 16, 2015
Pollgate: hindsight is wonderful but it doesn’t answer what went wrong
After the pre-election polls spectacularly failed to predict a Conservative majority, many are seriously asking…
Oz FlanaganJune 11, 2015
Why the polls got it so wrong in the British election
If the opinion polls had proved accurate, we would have woken up on the morning…
Leighton Vaughan WilliamsMay 11, 2015
The political pollsters’ report card: the statisticians’ verdict
Election season is now well underway in the UK and every scandal, botched interview and…
Deirdre Toher & Robin EvansMarch 11, 2015
