You can trust the polls in 2018, if you read them carefully
On the morning of 8 November 2016, many Americans went to bed confident that Hillary…
Josh Pasek and Michael TraugottSeptember 27, 2018
UK general election: Five steps to make sense of the latest polls
Unlike the 2015 general election, when the polls were essentially static (and wrong) throughout, the…
What’s happened to the polls since the 2015 UK election?
When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for 8 June 2017, it…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 15, 2017
Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors
On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…
Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016
Forecast error: European referenda, past and present
Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…
Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016
Voodoo polls are bad news: here’s how to spot and stop them
"Over a third of students ‘no longer wish to study medicine’ amid the junior doctors’…
Robert FordJanuary 20, 2016
Politics is broken: The Guardian’s Alberto Nardelli on the fragmentation of party support
It’s almost the end of party conference season in the UK – a time in…
Brian TarranOctober 8, 2015
Pollgate: hindsight is wonderful but it doesn’t answer what went wrong
After the pre-election polls spectacularly failed to predict a Conservative majority, many are seriously asking…
Oz FlanaganJune 11, 2015
How much did the polls vary from the general election result?
In the run up to polling day earlier this month, a large number of opinion…
Nambassa NakatuddeMay 29, 2015
Was anyone right about the pre-election polls?
There has been much wailing and gnashing of blogs since the dismal performance of the…
David SpiegelhalterMay 18, 2015
The political pollsters’ report card: the statisticians’ verdict
Election season is now well underway in the UK and every scandal, botched interview and…
Deirdre Toher & Robin EvansMarch 11, 2015
