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Forecast error: 2020 US presidential election predictors

Photo by Clay Banks on UnsplashEarly in 2020 the 45th President of the United States…

Timothy Martyn HillJuly 28, 2021

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Forecast error: How to predict an election, part 2: Betting

In 1979, Mr Tony Barlow was interviewed by the BBC. He had a nice house…

Timothy Martyn HillFebruary 22, 2021

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Forecast error: Predictors of the 2017 UK general election

On 18 April 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a snap general election for…

Timothy Martyn HillJuly 5, 2017

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Predicting the UK’s snap general election

https://unsplash.com/@jamie452I have decided to build a model to try to predict the results of the…

Gianluca BaioMay 30, 2017

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What’s happened to the polls since the 2015 UK election?

When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for 8 June 2017, it…

Timothy Martyn HillMay 15, 2017

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Forecast error: presidential election polls and predictors

On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election.…

Timothy Martyn HillNovember 2, 2016

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Forecast error: European referenda, past and present

Should we stay or should we go? That is the question being put to voters…

Timothy Martyn HillMay 25, 2016

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Yes, the polls were wrong. But it is time we understood their limitations

“General election polls in 2015 ‘the most inaccurate’,” said the BBC. “Polling shake-up planned after…

Brian TarranApril 5, 2016

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Politics is broken: The Guardian’s Alberto Nardelli on the fragmentation of party support

It’s almost the end of party conference season in the UK – a time in…

Brian TarranOctober 8, 2015

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Electoral bias in the UK after the general election

After the shock result of the UK’s 2015 general election, one could forgive Labour and…

Charles Pattie & Ron JohnstonJune 26, 2015

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Pollgate: hindsight is wonderful but it doesn’t answer what went wrong

After the pre-election polls spectacularly failed to predict a Conservative majority, many are seriously asking…

Oz FlanaganJune 11, 2015

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How much did the polls vary from the general election result?

In the run up to polling day earlier this month, a large number of opinion…

Nambassa NakatuddeMay 29, 2015

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Was anyone right about the pre-election polls?

There has been much wailing and gnashing of blogs since the dismal performance of the…

David SpiegelhalterMay 18, 2015

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Why the polls got it so wrong in the British election

If the opinion polls had proved accurate, we would have woken up on the morning…

Leighton Vaughan WilliamsMay 11, 2015

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Five things we learned at the RSS #immigrationfacts debate

One of the more interesting dynamics in British politics in recent years has been the…

Brian TarranApril 28, 2015

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(Un)representative democracy: where are all the female candidates?

Image: Catherine Bebbington/Parliamentary Copyright. Parliamentary Copyright images are reproduced with the permission of Parliament.In a…

Mario Cortina BorjaApril 25, 2015

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The Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill and its historical precedent

I paid close attention to the debate in the House of Commons yesterday when the…

Andrew McCullochJanuary 9, 2013