Probably maybe: Ice cream variation
Photo by Mark Cruz on UnsplashThe saying goes that “probabilities are counter-intuitive”. A simple problem…
Christoforos Anagnostopoulos and Spiros DoxiadisMarch 20, 2019
Playing with risk
Imagine you hold three six-sided dice in your hand. Now throw them, and before they…
How to explain screening test outcomes
Consider the following problem: “The serum test screens pregnant women for babies with Down's syndrome.…
Tim BrockApril 27, 2017
Ask a statistician: A variation of the birthday problem, part 2
Our latest 'Ask a statistician' question received not one but two different solutions. We published…
Brian TarranDecember 14, 2016
Does Donald Trump “defy all odds”?
When FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver predicted in June that Donald Trump had a 20 per…
Bernard Baffour and Joshua BonOctober 19, 2016
Who will win the Rugby World Cup? The (semi) final reckoning
It’s the semi-final weekend in the Rugby World Cup (RWC), with South Africa, New Zealand,…
Niven WinchesterOctober 22, 2015
Running against the odds – The probabilities of the London Marathon ballot
The late Chris Brasher, founder of the London Marathon, described the event as the ‘Suburban…
Anthony HatswellOctober 6, 2015
The World Cup group stage: predictions through the betting markets
The FIFA World Cup is just round the corner, kicking off in mid-June and ending…
Dominic CortisJune 2, 2014
Frog kissing. Or, why do we never learn?
A friend pointed me to this story about the average number of men (or rather…
Robin EvansFebruary 14, 2014
From science to advice: reinventing the scientific generalist (part two)
Solly Zuckerman (pictured) was meticulous in measuring things to assemble evidence when there was none,…
Thomas KingOctober 17, 2013
The Pope vote: left to chance?
115 Roman Catholic cardinals have been having an almighty lock-in to decide who will be…
Michael WallaceMarch 13, 2013
Keep your redshirt on: a Bayesian exploration
The idea of red-shirted characters being frequently killed in Star Trek: The Original Series has…
Matthew BarsalouFebruary 19, 2013
May(un)fair? Your chances of winning at McDonald’s Monopoly
McDonald's are once again running their Monopoly promotion, where along with your food you can…
Michael WallaceApril 19, 2011
