|
| Probabilities as of 4 June 2014 | ||||||
| Winning Group | Qualifying to | Winning the World Cup | ||||
| 2nd Round | Quarter Final | Semi Final | Final | |||
| Brazil | 79% | 95% | 71% | 54% | 37% | 23% |
| Argentina | 78% | 95% | 76% | 51% | 31% | 17% |
| Germany | 58% | 85% | 67% | 44% | 24% | 13% |
| Spain | 57% | 84% | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% |
| Belgium | 56% | 82% | 44% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| France | 54% | 81% | 49% | 22% | 9% | 4% |
| England | 30% | 61% | 36% | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| Italy | 36% | 68% | 41% | 18% | 8% | 3% |
| Portugal | 28% | 66% | 38% | 18% | 7% | 3% |
| Netherlands | 22% | 57% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% |
| Mexico | 9% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% |
| USA | 6% | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.3% |
I would place all American teams to qualify for the quarter finals; that is Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to beat Netherlands, England and Spain respectively. Having England and Spain eliminated at this stage is a risk, but again I have been assured that Mexico are a really good team. The quarter finals as per my predictions would be:
- Brazil vs Colombia which is won by Brazil,
- Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Germany which is won by the ever-present Germany,
- Mexico vs Italy which is won by Mexico, and
- Argentina vs Belgium which is won by Argentina.
Both Brazil and Germany have had successful campaigns in the past and it is very strange to note that they have only faced each other once during past World Cups: the 2002 World Cup final that was won by Brazil 2-0. My prediction would result in their second encounter in semi-final stage and I would expect Brazil to win again. In conclusion, I predict an all-South American Final: Brazil vs Argentina with Argentina getting the upper hand. This would not go down well in the host nation, especially given the precedent of the last time Brazil hosted the World Cup in 1950, when they were beaten in the final by their continent rivals Uruguay.
What about your predictions? If you are organizing an office pool and need a World Cup schedule or would like to participate in a free one, head on to www.2014pool.eu.
