Appendices to 'Fatal error: Who is winning in the war between Russia and Ukraine?'?

APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES

[0622]: Theory of Victory, Turkey and Russian mobilization

[0622a] https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/how-wars-end and https://www.amazon.com/Between-War-Peace-America-Ends/dp/1439194610 and https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Echevarria/APSTRAT1.htm#:~:text=Clausewitz%20derived%20his%20proposition%20that,and%20tactical%20levels%20of%20war.
[0622b] https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/where-turkey-stands-russia-ukraine-war
[0622c] https://english.elpais.com/international/2022-05-31/russia-boosts-recruitment-campaign-in-fresh-step-towards-war-mobilization.html

[0626] Data Visualisation and Area Occupied

[0626a] https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1500129718649118727 and https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500113886070071303.html

[0703] Peter Zeihan on Ukraine

[0703a] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wfm3_8lCY1M&list=UUsy9I56PY3IngCf_VGjunMQ&index=6

[0704] Polling and Surveys I

[0704a] https://wapor.org/wp-content/uploads/Release-Sapiens_eng.pdf and https://sapiens.com.ua/en/publication-single-page?id=224 and https://sapiens.com.ua/publications/socpol-research/224/Present_war_telegram_eng.pdf
[0704b] https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_ua_international_1200_ua_062022_%D1%85____press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/trinadcatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_vneshnepoliticheskie_orientacii_18-19_iyunya_2022.html
[0704c] https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006

[0718] Polling and Surveys II

[0718a] How much attention does your government dedicate to the war in Ukraine compared to other problems its own citizens are facing? https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/16/europeans-divided-over-how-ukraine-war-should-play-out-reveals-poll and https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/ and https://ecfr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine.pdf
[0718b] To what extent have the following events in the past month mattered to voters personally: https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1543596090943049728 and https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1538525775934242816
[0718c]: How much do you think what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in

the United States? https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-six-ten-favor-u-s-provide-aid-ukraine https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/06/Fox_June-10-13-2022_National_Topline_June-16-Release.pdf https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/06/Fox_June-10-13-2022_National_Cross-Tabs_June-16-Release.pdf

[0719] Polling and Surveys III

[0719a] https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/20/war-ukraine-britons-continue-support-sanctions-are and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9mofxvnhr2/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20Conflict%20June%202022.pdf and https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/18/support-further-russian-sanctions-and-arms-ukraine and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9mofxvnhr2/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20Conflict%20June%202022.pdf
[0719b] https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-six-ten-favor-u-s-provide-aid-ukraine and https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/06/Fox_June-10-13-2022_National_Topline_June-16-Release.pdf and https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/06/Fox_June-10-13-2022_National_Cross-Tabs_June-16-Release.pdf
[0719c] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3756 or https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/ip_22_3756/IP_22_3756_EN.pdf or https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2694 or https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/api/deliverable/download/file?deliverableId=82054
[0719d] https://morningconsult.com/tracking-the-russia-ukraine-crisis/

[0720] Subdivisions of Ukraine I

[0720a] https://samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraine-win?sd=pf
[0720b] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0h5Wdbu2bM
[0720c] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hromadas_of_Ukraine
[0720d] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sievierodonetsk_(2022)
[0720e] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Lysychansk
[0720f] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hromada
[0720g] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raions_of_Ukraine
[0720h] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_of_cities_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
[0720i] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map

[0727] Warfare Assessment

[0727a] Examples include:
- [0727aa] “Commander’s Handbook for Assessment Planning and Execution”, see https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pams_hands/assessment_hbk.pdf
- [0727ab] “Air Force Doctrine Publication (AFDP) 3-0”, see https://www.doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/documents/AFDP_3-0/3-0-D27-OPS-Assessment-Measure.pdf
- [0727ac] “Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations”, see https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2504.html and https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2500/RR2504/RAND_RR2504.pdf
- [0727ad] “Allied Joint Publication-3.27 Allied Joint Doctrine for Counter-Insurgency”, see https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1082608/20220504-AJP_3_27_A_COIN.pdf
- [0727ae] “ Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis”, see https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG668.pdf
[0727b] https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/development-concepts-and-doctrine-centre
[0727c] Examples include
- [0727ca] “Performance measurement in military operations: information versus incentives”, see https://faculty.nps.edu/ljblanke/docs/DPE%20metrics%20Blanken%20Lepore.pdf
- [0727cb] “Assessing War: The Challenge of Measuring Success and Failure” (Blanken, Rothstein, Lepore et al, 2015), see https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt19qgffn and https://www.waterstones.com/book/assessing-war/leo-j-blanken/hy-rothstein/9781626162457
[0727d] https://web.mit.edu/~dcltdw/AOW/4.html

[0801] Polling and Surveys IV

Cite

Date

Link

[0801a]

2022/11/XX

2022/12/XX

2023/01/XX

2023/02/XX

2023/03/XX

2023/04/XX

2023/05/XX

2023/06/XX

https://www.levada.ru/en/2023/07/14/conflict-with-ukraine-assesments-for-late-june-2023/

[0802] Polling and Surveys V

Cite	Date	Link
[0802a]	30/11/2022	https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1599418868052770818#m
[0802b]	15/02/2023	https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1627322411916959744#m
[0802c]	23/02/2023	https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1629859280840011777#m
[0802d]	01/03/2023	https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1632395994456375297#m
[0802e]	09/03/2023	https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1634932546642358273#m
[0802f]	27/04/2023	https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1652675911408316416#m
[0802g]	07/06/2023	https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1667894675393396741#m

[0803] Polling and Surveys VI

Cite	Date	Link
[0803a]	22/09/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/10/24/westerners-have-limited-appetite-concessions-russi and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/oig302hqqz/Globalism%202022%20-%20Support%20for%20countering%20Russia%20-%20All%20markets.pdf
[0803b]	15/02/2023	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2023/02/24/one-year-how-high-support-ukraine and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/c694qztpdt/Eurotrack_Ukraine_230215.pdf
[0803c]	22/02/2023	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2023/02/24/one-year-european-and-american-attitudes-war-ukrai and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7f6du2p76v/Eurotrack_Ukraine_Feb23.pdf
[0803d]	15/03/2023	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/18/support-further-russian-sanctions-and-arms-ukraine and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/dgapxo1i31/YouGov%20Sanctions%20and%20Actions%20against%20Russia.pdf
[0803e]	17/04/2023	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/04/18/should-uk-special-forces-be-sent-fight-ukraine and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/hehbz87oe3/Internal_UkraineMeasures_230417.pdf
[0803f]	19/05/2023	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/survey-results/daily/2023/05/19/cbb14/2
[0803g]	02/06/2023	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/a8u8hvlstk/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20War%20tracker%20June%202023.pdf
[0803h]	20/10/2022	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-year-britons-remain-favour-supporting-ukraine and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-02/ipsos-ukraine-polling-1-year-on-feb-2023.pdf
[0803i]	22/02/2023	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-year-britons-remain-favour-supporting-ukraine and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-02/ipsos-ukraine-polling-1-year-on-feb-2023.pdf

[0804] Polling and Surveys VII

Cite	Date	Link
[0804a]	22/09/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/10/24/westerners-have-limited-appetite-concessions-russi and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/oig302hqqz/Globalism%202022%20-%20Support%20for%20countering%20Russia%20-%20All%20markets.pdf
[0804b]	xx/08/2022	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-year-britons-remain-favour-supporting-ukraine and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-02/ipsos-ukraine-polling-1-year-on-feb-2023.pdf
[0804c]	xx/10/2022	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-year-britons-remain-favour-supporting-ukraine and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-02/ipsos-ukraine-polling-1-year-on-feb-2023.pdf
[0804d]	20/01/2023	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ukraine-war-one-year-on and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-01/Global%20Advisor%20-%20War%20in%20Ukraine%20.pdf and https://www.ipsos.com/en/war-in-ukraine-january-2023
[0804e]	22/02/2023	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-year-britons-remain-favour-supporting-ukraine and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-02/ipsos-ukraine-polling-1-year-on-feb-2023.pdf
[0804f]	04/07/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/19/britons-tend-support-keeping-russia-sanctions-face

[0805] Polling and Surveys VIII

Cite	Date	Link
[0805a]	25/02/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring
[0805b]	27/02/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring
[0805c]	03/03/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring
[0805d]	17/03/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring
[0805e]	24/03/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1
[0805f]	12/04/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006
[0805g]	24/04/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006
[0805h]	12/05/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006
[0805i]	26/05/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-1 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006
[0805j]	12/06/2022	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-monitoring-study-2
[0805k]	2023/01/XX	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-a-year-later and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-god-spustja

[0806] Subdivisions of Ukraine II

[0806a] = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hromadas_of_Ukraine
[0806b] = all entries in [0806d] with “Категорія об’єкта” set to “H”, except for those in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, all of which have a first-level code of “UA01000000000013043”
[0806c] = https://www.minregion.gov.ua/napryamki-diyalnosti/rozvytok-mistsevoho-samovryaduvannya/administratyvno/kodyfikator-administratyvno-terytorialnyh-odynycz-ta-terytorij-terytorialnyh-gromad/
[0806d] = The website is here: https://www.minregion.gov.ua/napryamki-diyalnosti/rozvytok-mistsevoho-samovryaduvannya/administratyvno/kodyfikator-administratyvno-terytorialnyh-odynycz-ta-terytorij-terytorialnyh-gromad/kodyfikator-administratyvno-terytorialnyh-odynycz-ta-terytorij-terytorialnyh-gromad-2021-03-22/ and the spreadsheet is here: https://www.minregion.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/kodyfikator-2.xlsx
[0806e] = all entries in [0806d] with “Категорія об’єкта” set to “H”
[0806f] = all entries in [0806d] with “Категорія об’єкта” set to “H” and the first-level code set to“UA01000000000013043” for those in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
[0806g] = https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v0290914-20#Text

[0807] Polling and Surveys IX

Cite	Date	Link
[0807a]	01/03/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/ru/post/%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5-%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%B6%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B9-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%BA-%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D1%80%D1%84-%D0%B2-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B5
[0807b]	16/10/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/16-the-swamps-of-war and https://www.extremescan.eu/ru/post/16-%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D1%8B
[0807c]	09/02/2023	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/16-the-swamps-of-war and https://www.extremescan.eu/ru/post/16-%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D1%8B

[0808] Polling and Surveys X

Cite	Date	Link
[0808a]	02/03/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808b]	18/03/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808c]	29/03/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808d]	16/04/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808e]	17/05/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808f]	05/07/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808g]	01/08/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808h]	29/09/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808i]	16/10/2022	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808j]	17/02/2023	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer
[0808k]	21/03/2023	https://www.extremescan.eu/post/17-the-war-is-getting-closer

[0809] Polling and Surveys X

Cite

Date

Link

[0809a]

04/03/2022

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_01

and https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter1

[0809b]

09/02/2023

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/blob/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_09/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D0%A5%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%209.0%20Exel.xlsx

and https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_08

and https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_09

and https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter8

and https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter9

[0810] Polling and Surveys XI

Cite	Date	Link
[0810a]	13/03/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/chetvertyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraincev_v_usloviyah_voyny_12-13_marta_2022_goda.html?fbclid=IwAR06uHinjZlIxh0khqLLSe_kHIOqAuECnnKhJhe2jmAUfYqR8fobYBmgVHE
[0810b]	18/03/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/pyatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_18_marta_2022.html
[0810c]	31/03/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/sedmoy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_30-31_marta_2022.html
[0810d]	27/04/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/devyatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ocenki_mezhdunarodnogo_partnerstva_26_aprelya_2022.html
[0810e]	19/05/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf
[0810f]	19/06/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf
[0810g]	24/07/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/pyatnadcat_obschenaci_opros_ukraina_vo_vremya_voyny_zanyatost_i_dohody_23-24_iyulya_2022_goda.html
[0810h]	18/08/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf
[0810i]	02/10/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf
[0810j]	09/10/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/v_s_mnadcyate_zagalnonac_onalne_opituvannya_stavlennya_ukra_nc_v_do_nozemnih_kra_n_8-9_zhovtnya_2022.html
[0810k]	04/11/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf
[0810l]	21/11/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf
[0810m]	21/11/2022	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/nineteenth_national_survey_results_of_the_year_expectations_for_the_future_november_20-21_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_year_results_cati_1000_122022_xix_press.pdf
[0810n]	11/06/2023	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/ukraine_s_resilience_formula_the_essential_components_during_war_and_post-war_6_11_june_2023.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_nprsc_062023_press.pdf
[0810o]	02/06/2023	https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_1000_ua_moods_job_%D1%85%D1%85_i_062023_press.pdf and https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/dvadcyat_druge_zagalnonaconalne_opituvanny_nastro_ta_ekonom_chne_stanovisch_naselennya_1-2_chervnya.html

[0811] Clausewitzian Gap and Grand Strategy Gap

[0811a], Von Clausewitz was a 19th century Prussian military theorist, famous for his book “On War”. The “Clausewitzian gap” was named after von Clausewitz by Blanken and Lepore in Chapter 1 of “Assessing War: The Challenge of Measuring Success and Failure” and by Rothstein in Chapter 2
[0811b] YouGov and Ipsos both asked questions about support for Ukraine taking energy prices into account. But they were noticeably different. On investigation it was discovered that YouGov was inconsistent with its wording. Ipsos asked about an “increase in energy prices”, but YouGov used different wording, sometimes using the phrase “significant increase”, sometimes “increase”. See https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/19/britons-tend-support-keeping-russia-sanctions-face
[0811c] See “On War”, Book 8 section B “War is an instrument of policy”, specifically “war is only a branch of political activity; that it is in no sense autonomous” (page 252), and “in the same way as a man who has not fully mastered a foreign language sometimes fails to express himself correctly, so statement often issues orders that defeat the purpose they are meant to serve” (page 256) and “unless statesman and soldier are combined in one person, the only sound expedient is to make the commander-in-chief a member of the cabinet, so that the cabinet can share in the major aspects of his activities.” (also page 256). Page numbers are from the Oxford World’s Classics version, ISBN 978-0-19-954002-0

[1123] Polling and Surveys XII

Cite	Date	Link
[1123a]	12/09/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/22/what-impact-cost-living-crisis-having-support-ukra and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lsaa453mvp/Internal_Ukraine_220912.pdf
[1123b]	29/06/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/19/britons-tend-support-keeping-russia-sanctions-face and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/j5iu3wvr84/UK%20Russia%20further%20sanctions%20and%20the%20cost%20of%20living.pdf
[1123c]	01/03/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/02/britons-increasingly-support-sanctions-russia-and- and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/p73b5a5nt1/YouGov%20Survey%20Results%20-%20Russia%20and%20Ukraine%2001%20March.pdf
[1123d]	11/07/2022	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/v61mevh65q/Ukraine%20Wave%203%20compiled.pdf
[1123e]	15/03/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/18/support-further-russian-sanctions-and-arms-ukraine and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/dgapxo1i31/YouGov%20Sanctions%20and%20Actions%20against%20Russia.pdf
[1123f]	22/02/2022 02/03/2022 05/04/2022 20/10/2022	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/public-continues-support-britains-role-ukraine-conflict and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-10/ipsos-ukraine-polling-sky-news-october-2022-tables.pdf and https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-war-cost-living-crisis-202700922.html
[1123g]	02/03/2022	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/polling-ukraine-support-for-sanctions-and-governments-handling-grows and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/Ipsos%20Feb%202022%20Ukraine%20polling_030322_PUBLIC%5B61%5D%20%20-%20%20Read-Only.pdf and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/ipsos-ukraine-polling-march-2022.pdf and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/Ipsos%20March%202022%20Ukraine%20poll%20tables_020322_PUBLIC_0.pdf
[1123h]	09/06/2022	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/20/war-ukraine-britons-continue-support-sanctions-are and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9mofxvnhr2/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20Conflict%20June%202022.pdf

[1124] Polling and Surveys XIII

Cite	Date	Link
[1124a]	2022/02/23	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2022/02/23/4d262/1
[1124b]	2022/02/24	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/02/24/war-ukraine-britons-support-sanctions-not-if-it-me
[1124c]	2022/02/25	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/02/25/are-sanctions-against-russia-tough-enough-britons
[1124d]	2022/02/28	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/02/28/war-ukraine-britons-increasingly-support-action-ag
[1124e]	2022/03/02	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/02/britons-increasingly-support-sanctions-russia-and- and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/p73b5a5nt1/YouGov%20Survey%20Results%20-%20Russia%20and%20Ukraine%2001%20March.pdf
[1124f]	2022/03/02	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/02/how-worried-are-britons-about-prospect-nuclear-att
[1124g]	2022/03/03	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/03/no-rally-round-flag-effect-boris-johnson-ukraine-c
[1124h]	2022/03/10	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/10/just-10-britons-think-west-doing-enough-stop-russi
[1124i]	2022/03/11	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/11/what-do-britons-think-impact-russian-invasion-ukra
[1124j]	2022/03/11	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/survey-results/daily/2022/03/11/88cea/1
[1124k]	2022/03/11	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/arts/survey-results/daily/2022/03/11/88cea/3
[1124l]	2022/03/11	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/11/what-do-britons-think-impact-russian-invasion-ukra
[1124m]	2022/03/15	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/18/support-further-russian-sanctions-and-arms-ukraine and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/dgapxo1i31/YouGov%20Sanctions%20and%20Actions%20against%20Russia.pdf
[1124n]	2022/03/19	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/03/19/ukraine-crisis-no-good-options
[1124o]	2022/03/21	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/21/who-will-sanctions-russia-actually-hurt
[1124p]	2022/03/28	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/03/28/europeans-say-britain-not-pulling-its-weight-ukrai
[1124q]	2022/04/04	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/survey-results/daily/2022/04/04/8048e/1
[1124r]	2022/09/08	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/22/what-impact-cost-living-crisis-having-support-ukra and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/tkrd2x7z8e/Internal_Ukraine_220908_NEW.pdf
[1124s]	2022/03/02	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/polling-ukraine-support-for-sanctions-and-governments-handling-grows and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/Ipsos%20Feb%202022%20Ukraine%20polling_030322_PUBLIC%5B61%5D%20%20-%20%20Read-Only.pdf and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/ipsos-ukraine-polling-march-2022.pdf and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/Ipsos%20March%202022%20Ukraine%20poll%20tables_020322_PUBLIC_0.pdf
[1124t]	22/02/2022 02/03/2022 05/04/2022 20/10/2022	https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/public-continues-support-britains-role-ukraine-conflict and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-10/ipsos-ukraine-polling-sky-news-october-2022-tables.pdf and https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-war-cost-living-crisis-202700922.html and https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-year-britons-remain-favour-supporting-ukraine and https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-02/ipsos-ukraine-polling-1-year-on-feb-2023.pdf
[1124u]	2022/06/09 or 2022/06/20	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/20/war-ukraine-britons-continue-support-sanctions-are and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9mofxvnhr2/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20Conflict%20June%202022.pdf
[1124v]	2022/09/22	https://nitter.net/YouGov/status/1572895749335130114#m
[1124w]	2022/06/29	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/v61mevh65q/Ukraine%20Wave%203%20compiled.pdf

[1125] Polling and Surveys XIV

Cite	Date	Link
[1125a]	12/06/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1535958861244424193
[1125b]	30/06/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1543596090943049728
[1125c]	19/07/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1549393765634383874
[1125d]	24/07/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1551206188339036161
[1125e]	25/09/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1574037476783673344
[1125f]	30/10/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1586720977274212355
[1125g]	06/11/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1589272304332275714
[1125h]	13/11/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591808755200454657
[1125i]	30/06/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1543596090943049728
[1125j]	17/11/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1594345186351513600
[1125k]	19/06/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1538525775934242816

See also

Cite	Date	Link
[1125x]	24/07/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1551206183050027009
[1125x]	25/09/2022	https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1574037469204455427

[1126] Polling and Surveys XV

Cite	Date	Link
[1126a]	2022/07/27	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/pyatnadcat_obschenaci_opros_ukraina_vo_vremya_voyny_zanyatost_i_dohody_23-24_iyulya_2022_goda.html
[1126b]	2022/08/23	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/s_mnadcyate_zagalnonac_onalne_opituvannya_dentichn_st_patr_otizm_c_nnost_17-18_serpnya_2022.html
[1126c]	2022/10/24	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/v_s_mnadcyate_zagalnonac_onalne_opituvannya_stavlennya_ukra_nc_v_do_nozemnih_kra_n_8-9_zhovtnya_2022.html
[1126d]	2022/06/20 or 2022/06/19	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/trinadcatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_vneshnepoliticheskie_orientacii_18-19_iyunya_2022.html and https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_ua_international_1200_ua_062022_%D1%85____press.pdf

[1127] Polling and Surveys XVI

Cite	Date	Link
[1127a]	2022/02/XX 2022/03/XX 2022/04/XX 2022/05/XX 2022/06/XX 2022/07/XX 2022/08/XX 2022/09/XX 2022/10/XX	https://www.levada.ru/2022/10/27/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-oktyabr-2022-goda/ and https://www.levada.ru/2022/06/30/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-3/
[1127b]	2022/10/11 or 2022/08/18	https://www.levada.ru/2022/11/10/sobytiya-oktyabrya/
[1127c]	2022/03/XX 2022/04/XX 2022/05/XX 2022/06/XX 2022/07/XX 2022/08/XX or 2022/09/06?	https://n.wciom.ru/press-release/special-military-operation-six-months-later and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/cpecialnaja-voennaja-operacija-polgoda-spustja and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006 and
[1127d]	2022/11/01	https://www.levada.ru/2022/11/01/doverie-oprosam-o-spetsoperatsii/ [trust]
[1127e]	See below	See below
[1127f]	2022/06/25	https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006 and https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006

[1127e] Polling and Surveys XVII

The Russian sources Chronicles, Republic and ExtremeScan made references to each other and the data stored on GitHub at https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/ . Consequently the citation [1127e] was used to cite sources from all three locations.

Cite

Date

Link

[1127e]

2022/03/04

2022/03/13

2022/03/30

2022/04/18

2022/05/19

2022/07/05

2022/09/22

2022/09/30

2022/10/13?

Github

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/blob/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_07/%D0%A5%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%207.0%20%D0%90%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%82%20(%D0%AD%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%201%20%D0%B8%202%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D1%8B).pdf

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/blob/main/%D0%A5%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%207.0%20%D0%90%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B8%CC%86%20%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%82%20(%D0%AD%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%81%201%20%D0%B8%202%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D1%8B).pdf

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_01

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_02

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_03

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_04

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_05

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_06

https://github.com/dorussianswantwar/research1/tree/main/%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0_07

Republic

https://republic.ru/posts/104432?invite=0d472dece06812fb8e15a8957da723f8

Chronicles

https://www.chronicles.report/

https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter2

https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter3

https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter4

https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter5

https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter6

https://www.chronicles.report/en/chapter7

ExtremeScan and EsxtremeScan Trend

https://www.extremescan.eu/post/13-ordeal-by-mobilization

https://www.extremescan.eu/post/16-the-swamps-of-war

https://www.extremescan.eu/post/5-anatomy-of-support

https://www.extremescan.eu/ru/post/%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B6%D0%BA%D0%B8

https://www.extremescan.eu/ru/post/%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B6%D0%BA%D0%B0-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D1%8B-%D1%81%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B8-%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%85-%D0%B2-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D1%81%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%8C-%D0%B4%D0%BE-55

https://www.extremescan.eu/ru/post/14-%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%8F-%D1%84%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0-%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%B2-%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%B6%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B9-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8

https://www.extremescan.eu/ru/post/16-%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D1%8B

[1208] Polling and Surveys XVIII

Cite	Link
[1208a]	https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-opinion-polls-war-ukraine/
[1208b]	https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803
[1208c]	https://web.archive.org/web/20220914235430/https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russian-public-opinion-ukraine-war-putin-approval-rating-by-andrei-kolesnikov-and-denis-volkov-2022-09
[1208d]	https://jordanrussiacenter.org/news/russias-tricky-opinion-polling-sociologist-alexey-bessudnov-shares-five-charts-that-help-explain-how-to-read-the-kremlins-survey-data-on-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine/#.Y5KI23bP3IV

[1211] UK and Ukranian Gazettes

[1211a] https://www.thegazette.co.uk/about
[1211b] https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/main/o1290

APPENDIX 2: SECOND-LEVEL ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS OF UKRAINE

To a first approximation countries are subdivided into first-level administrative divisions, which are in turn subdivided into second-level administrative divisions. Examples of these are:

Table: examples of administration divisions and settlement

Country	First-level	Second-level	Example settlement
United States	The state of California	The county of Orange County	The city of Fullerton
Canada	The territory of Nunavut	The region of Kitikmeot	The hamlet of Kugluktuk
Italy	The region of Abruzzo	The province of Pescara	The city of Pescara
Spain	The autonomous community of Andalusia	The province of Almería	The municipality of Benitagla

A recurring worldwide problem with second-level divisions is their inconsistency. They may not have constant names, may not have constant borders, or may not have consistent titles (Nunavut is a territory but Alberta is a province). So even in normal circumstances compiling a list of the second-level administrative divisions of Ukraine would be complicated.

But these are not normal circumstances. There are further complexities as follows;

Ukraine does not have consistent titles. It uses the word “oblast” for most of its first-level divisions but “city of special status” for two of them: Kyiv and Sevastopol. It uses the word “raion” for most of its second-level divisions but the subdivisions of each “city of special status” are called “urban districts” or “urban raions” or “city districts” or “city raions” or “districts” or “raions”
Ukraine reorganized its second-level divisions in 2020 and sources may not be up-to-date.
Many areas are contested between Russia and Ukraine thru force of arms.
Russia may have its own names for areas and/or have different borders or subdivisions.
Original names given to second-level divisions will be in Ukrainian or Russian, so English equivalents must be found. Those English names may be created via transliteration or translation, and they give different results.
Other Russia/Ukraine differences.

Consequently a second-level division may have several different names depending on when the source was written and which jurisdiction it was using. An example is:

Table: various names used for subdivision UA85000000000259923 in Crimea named after Yuri Gagarin

Jurisdiction

First-level name

First-level title

Second-level name

Second-level district

· Ukraine

· Russia

· Севастополь

· Sevastopol

· Sebastopol

· City of Sevastopol, etc

· Місто, що має спеціальний статус

· A city that has a special status

· City of special status

· Independent city

· Federal city, etc

· Гагарінський

· Haharinskyi

· Gagarin

· Gagarin Raion

· Gagarinskiy

· Gagarinskiy District, etc

· Район в місті

· District in the city

· Raion

· City raion

· Urban raion

· District

· City district

· Urban district, etc

To write this article it was necessary to list each second-level division and assign a name to them. But given the circumstances it was difficult to do so in a way to satisfy all parties, and assigning a definitive name is obviously outside the scope of this article. It is inevitable therefore that the names assigned herein may contain errors and omissions, or not match the names in Ukraine or Russian law, or not match those used by the local inhabitants. The reader should bear this in mind.

Accordingly we will divide Ukraine into 150 second-level administrative divisions. This is made up of the 136 raions as defined in 2020, plus the ten urban districts of Kyiv, plus the four urban districts of Sevastopol. Note that many of these will be controlled and administered by Russia or its allies, such as Crimea which is currently controlled by Russia and annexed into the Russian Federation as the republic of Crimea. Those 150 divisions are as follows:

Table: 150 second-level administrative divisions used for this article

code	article_name_for_level_2	name_en_center	parent_id	article_name_for_level_1	Link
UA01020000000022387	Bakhchysarai Raion	Bakhchysarai	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01040000000069938	Bilohirsk Raion	Bilohirsk	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01060000000028159	Dzhankoi Raion	Dzhankoi	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01080000000090798	Yevpatoria Raion	Yevpatoria	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01100000000047924	Kerch Raion	Kerch	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01120000000061837	Qurman Raion	Qurman	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01140000000010124	Perekop Raion	Yani Qapu	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01160000000090126	Simferopol Raion	Simferopol	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01180000000068971	Feodosia Raion	Feodosia	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA01200000000063976	Yalta Raion	Yalta	UA01000000000013043	Crimea (republic)	[2]
UA05020000000026686	Vinnytsia Raion	Vinnytsia	UA05000000000010236	Vinnytsia Oblast	[2]
UA05040000000050292	Haisyn Raion	Haisyn	UA05000000000010236	Vinnytsia Oblast	[2]
UA05060000000061926	Zhmerynka Raion	Zhmerynka	UA05000000000010236	Vinnytsia Oblast	[2]
UA05080000000040234	Mohyliv-Podilskyi Raion	Mohyliv-Podilskyi	UA05000000000010236	Vinnytsia Oblast	[2]
UA05100000000022396	Tulchyn Raion	Tulchyn	UA05000000000010236	Vinnytsia Oblast	[2]
UA05120000000017020	Khmilnyk Raion	Khmilnyk	UA05000000000010236	Vinnytsia Oblast	[2]
UA07020000000048211	Volodymyr-Volynskyi Raion	Volodymyr-Volynskyi	UA07000000000024379	Volyn Oblast	[2]
UA07040000000026412	Kamin-Kashyrskyi Raion	Kamin-Kashyrskyi	UA07000000000024379	Volyn Oblast	[2]
UA07060000000092268	Kovel Raion	Kovel	UA07000000000024379	Volyn Oblast	[2]
UA07080000000034745	Lutsk Raion	Lutsk	UA07000000000024379	Volyn Oblast	[2]
UA12020000000052809	Dnipro Raion	Dnipro	UA12000000000090473	Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	[2]
UA12040000000032213	Kamianske Raion	Kamianske	UA12000000000090473	Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	[2]
UA12060000000022633	Kryvyi Rih Raion	Kryvyi Rih	UA12000000000090473	Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	[2]
UA12080000000023578	Nikopol Raion	Nikopol	UA12000000000090473	Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	[2]
UA12100000000039307	Novomoskovsk Raion	Novomoskovsk	UA12000000000090473	Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	[2]
UA12120000000089862	Pavlohrad Raion	Pavlohrad	UA12000000000090473	Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	[2]
UA12140000000011720	Synelnykove Raion	Synelnykove	UA12000000000090473	Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	[2]
UA14020000000013572	Bakhmut Raion	Bakhmut	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA14040000000098211	Volnovakha Raion	Volnovakha	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA14060000000024357	Horlivka Raion	Horlivka	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA14080000000098686	Donetsk Raion	Donetsk	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA14100000000010319	Kalmiuske Raion	Kalmiuske	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA14120000000070232	Kramatorsk Raion	Kramatorsk	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA14140000000070889	Mariupol Raion	Mariupol	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA14160000000061982	Pokrovsk Raion	Pokrovsk	UA14000000000091971	Donetsk Oblast	[2]
UA18020000000072859	Berdychiv Raion	Berdychiv	UA18000000000041385	Zhytomyr Oblast	[2]
UA18040000000058965	Zhytomyr Raion	Zhytomyr	UA18000000000041385	Zhytomyr Oblast	[2]
UA18060000000021754	Korosten Raion	Korosten	UA18000000000041385	Zhytomyr Oblast	[2]
UA18080000000016657	Novohrad-Volynskyi Raion	Novohrad-Volynskyi	UA18000000000041385	Zhytomyr Oblast	[2]
UA21020000000051405	Berehove Raion	Berehove	UA21000000000011690	Zakarpattia Oblast	[2]
UA21040000000077329	Mukachevo Raion	Mukachevo	UA21000000000011690	Zakarpattia Oblast	[2]
UA21060000000059475	Rakhiv Raion	Rakhiv	UA21000000000011690	Zakarpattia Oblast	[2]
UA21080000000048851	Tiachiv Raion	Tiachiv	UA21000000000011690	Zakarpattia Oblast	[2]
UA21100000000055073	Uzhhorod Raion	Uzhhorod	UA21000000000011690	Zakarpattia Oblast	[2]
UA21120000000022889	Khust Raion	Khust	UA21000000000011690	Zakarpattia Oblast	[2]
UA23020000000032289	Berdyansk Raion	Berdyansk	UA23000000000064947	Zaporizhzhia Oblast	[2]
UA23040000000067730	Vasylivka Raion	Vasylivka	UA23000000000064947	Zaporizhzhia Oblast	[2]
UA23060000000070350	Zaporizhzhia Raion	Zaporizhzhia	UA23000000000064947	Zaporizhzhia Oblast	[2]
UA23080000000090746	Melitopol Raion	Melitopol	UA23000000000064947	Zaporizhzhia Oblast	[2]
UA23100000000034132	Polohy Raion	Polohy	UA23000000000064947	Zaporizhzhia Oblast	[2]
UA26020000000044654	Verkhovyna Raion	Verkhovyna	UA26000000000069363	Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast	[2]
UA26040000000044761	Ivano-Frankivsk Raion	Ivano-Frankivsk	UA26000000000069363	Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast	[2]
UA26060000000042554	Kalush Raion	Kalush	UA26000000000069363	Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast	[2]
UA26080000000050130	Kolomyia Raion	Kolomyia	UA26000000000069363	Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast	[2]
UA26100000000092255	Kosiv Raion	Kosiv	UA26000000000069363	Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast	[2]
UA26120000000036058	Nadvirna Raion	Nadvirna	UA26000000000069363	Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast	[2]
UA32020000000057002	Bila Tserkva Raion	Bila Tserkva	UA32000000000030281	Kyiv Oblast	[2]
UA32040000000054694	Boryspil Raion	Boryspil	UA32000000000030281	Kyiv Oblast	[2]
UA32060000000012455	Brovary Raion	Brovary	UA32000000000030281	Kyiv Oblast	[2]
UA32080000000084076	Bucha Raion	Bucha	UA32000000000030281	Kyiv Oblast	[2]
UA32100000000065867	Vyshhorod Raion	Vyshhorod	UA32000000000030281	Kyiv Oblast	[2]
UA32120000000081110	Obukhiv Raion	Obukhiv	UA32000000000030281	Kyiv Oblast	[2]
UA32140000000020217	Fastiv Raion	Fastiv	UA32000000000030281	Kyiv Oblast	[2]
UA35020000000074289	Holovanivsk Raion	Holovanivsk	UA35000000000016081	Kirovohrad Oblast	[2]
UA35040000000034705	Kropyvnytskyi Raion	Kropyvnytskyi	UA35000000000016081	Kirovohrad Oblast	[2]
UA35060000000086172	Novoukrainka Raion	Novoukrainka	UA35000000000016081	Kirovohrad Oblast	[2]
UA35080000000062763	Oleksandriia Raion	Oleksandriia	UA35000000000016081	Kirovohrad Oblast	[2]
UA44020000000082097	Alchevsk Raion	Alchevsk	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA44040000000032820	Dovzhansk Raion	Dovzhansk	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA44060000000048093	Luhansk Raion	Luhansk	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA44080000000045512	Rovenky Raion	Rovenky	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA44100000000052765	Svatove Raion	Svatove	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA44120000000092852	Sievierodonetsk Raion	Sievierodonetsk	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA44140000000031142	Starobilsk Raion	Starobilsk	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA44160000000057142	Shchastia Raion	Novoaidar	UA44000000000018893	Luhansk Oblast	[2]
UA46020000000075920	Drohobych Raion	Drohobych	UA46000000000026241	Lviv Oblast	[2]
UA46040000000069196	Zolochiv Raion	Zolochiv	UA46000000000026241	Lviv Oblast	[2]
UA46060000000042587	Lviv Raion	Lviv	UA46000000000026241	Lviv Oblast	[2]
UA46080000000017237	Sambir Raion	Sambir	UA46000000000026241	Lviv Oblast	[2]
UA46100000000023056	Stryi Raion	Stryi	UA46000000000026241	Lviv Oblast	[2]
UA46120000000057093	Chervonohrad Raion	Chervonohrad	UA46000000000026241	Lviv Oblast	[2]
UA46140000000036328	Yavoriv Raion	Yavoriv	UA46000000000026241	Lviv Oblast	[2]
UA48020000000033544	Bashtanka Raion	Bashtanka	UA48000000000039575	Mykolaiv Oblast	[2]
UA48040000000011780	Voznesensk Raion	Voznesensk	UA48000000000039575	Mykolaiv Oblast	[2]
UA48060000000094390	Mykolaiv Raion	Mykolaiv	UA48000000000039575	Mykolaiv Oblast	[2]
UA48080000000082320	Pervomaisk Raion	Pervomaisk	UA48000000000039575	Mykolaiv Oblast	[2]
UA51020000000097683	Berezivka Raion	Berezivka	UA51000000000030770	Odessa Oblast	[2]
UA51040000000032911	Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi Raion	Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi	UA51000000000030770	Odessa Oblast	[2]
UA51060000000057808	Bolhrad Raion	Bolhrad	UA51000000000030770	Odessa Oblast	[2]
UA51080000000061776	Izmail Raion	Izmail	UA51000000000030770	Odessa Oblast	[2]
UA51100000000095786	Odessa Raion	Odessa	UA51000000000030770	Odessa Oblast	[2]
UA51120000000021678	Podilsk Raion	Podilsk	UA51000000000030770	Odessa Oblast	[2]
UA51140000000094970	Rozdilna Raion	Rozdilna	UA51000000000030770	Odessa Oblast	[2]
UA53020000000034761	Kremenchuk Raion	Kremenchuk	UA53000000000028050	Poltava Oblast	[2]
UA53040000000081308	Lubny Raion	Lubny	UA53000000000028050	Poltava Oblast	[2]
UA53060000000045271	Myrhorod Raion	Myrhorod	UA53000000000028050	Poltava Oblast	[2]
UA53080000000068029	Poltava Raion	Poltava	UA53000000000028050	Poltava Oblast	[2]
UA56020000000011586	Varash Raion	Varash	UA56000000000066151	Rivne Oblast	[2]
UA56040000000062179	Dubno Raion	Dubno	UA56000000000066151	Rivne Oblast	[2]
UA56060000000041446	Rivne Raion	Rivne	UA56000000000066151	Rivne Oblast	[2]
UA56080000000096146	Sarny Raion	Sarny	UA56000000000066151	Rivne Oblast	[2]
UA59020000000081905	Konotop Raion	Konotop	UA59000000000057109	Sumy Oblast	[2]
UA59040000000045652	Okhtyrka Raion	Okhtyrka	UA59000000000057109	Sumy Oblast	[2]
UA59060000000086008	Romny Raion	Romny	UA59000000000057109	Sumy Oblast	[2]
UA59080000000057897	Sumy Raion	Sumy	UA59000000000057109	Sumy Oblast	[2]
UA59100000000036457	Shostka Raion	Shostka	UA59000000000057109	Sumy Oblast	[2]
UA61020000000016944	Kremenets Raion	Kremenets	UA61000000000060328	Ternopil Oblast	[2]
UA61040000000090285	Ternopil Raion	Ternopil	UA61000000000060328	Ternopil Oblast	[2]
UA61060000000068766	Chortkiv Raion	Chortkiv	UA61000000000060328	Ternopil Oblast	[2]
UA63020000000066931	Bohodukhiv Raion	Bohodukhiv	UA63000000000041885	Kharkiv Oblast	[2]
UA63040000000023521	Izium Raion	Izium	UA63000000000041885	Kharkiv Oblast	[2]
UA63060000000053698	Krasnohrad Raion	Krasnohrad	UA63000000000041885	Kharkiv Oblast	[2]
UA63080000000032022	Kupiansk Raion	Kupiansk	UA63000000000041885	Kharkiv Oblast	[2]
UA63100000000059237	Lozova Raion	Lozova	UA63000000000041885	Kharkiv Oblast	[2]
UA63120000000091135	Kharkiv Raion	Kharkiv	UA63000000000041885	Kharkiv Oblast	[2]
UA63140000000096278	Chuhuiv Raion	Chuhuiv	UA63000000000041885	Kharkiv Oblast	[2]
UA65020000000032929	Beryslav Raion	Beryslav	UA65000000000030969	Kherson Oblast	[2]
UA65040000000088940	Henichesk Raion	Henichesk	UA65000000000030969	Kherson Oblast	[2]
UA65060000000061947	Kakhovka Raion	Nova Kakhovka	UA65000000000030969	Kherson Oblast	[2]
UA65080000000090947	Skadovsk Raion	Skadovsk	UA65000000000030969	Kherson Oblast	[2]
UA65100000000029736	Kherson Raion	Kherson	UA65000000000030969	Kherson Oblast	[2]
UA68020000000016021	Kamianets-Podilskyi Raion	Kamianets-Podilskyi	UA68000000000099709	Khmelnytskyi Oblast	[2]
UA68040000000086061	Khmelnytskyi Raion	Khmelnytskyi	UA68000000000099709	Khmelnytskyi Oblast	[2]
UA68060000000040570	Shepetivka Raion	Shepetivka	UA68000000000099709	Khmelnytskyi Oblast	[2]
UA71020000000057292	Zvenyhorodka Raion	Zvenyhorodka	UA71000000000010357	Cherkasy Oblast	[2]
UA71040000000022553	Zolotonosha Raion	Zolotonosha	UA71000000000010357	Cherkasy Oblast	[2]
UA71060000000030325	Uman Raion	Uman	UA71000000000010357	Cherkasy Oblast	[2]
UA71080000000036344	Cherkasy Raion	Cherkasy	UA71000000000010357	Cherkasy Oblast	[2]
UA73020000000038148	Vyzhnytsia Raion	Vyzhnytsia	UA73000000000044923	Chernivtsi Oblast	[2]
UA73040000000031528	Dnistrovskyi Raion	Kelmentsi	UA73000000000044923	Chernivtsi Oblast	[2]
UA73060000000061247	Chernivtsi Raion	Chernivtsi	UA73000000000044923	Chernivtsi Oblast	[2]
UA74020000000089267	Koriukivka Raion	Koriukivka	UA74000000000025378	Chernihiv Oblast	[2]
UA74040000000028062	Nizhyn Raion	Nizhyn	UA74000000000025378	Chernihiv Oblast	[2]
UA74060000000063946	Novhorod-Siverskyi Raion	Novhorod-Siverskyi	UA74000000000025378	Chernihiv Oblast	[2]
UA74080000000030554	Pryluky Raion	Pryluky	UA74000000000025378	Chernihiv Oblast	[2]
UA74100000000047140	Chernihiv Raion	Chernihiv	UA74000000000025378	Chernihiv Oblast	[2]
UA80000000000126643	Holosiiv Raion	Holosiivskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000210193	Darnytsia Raion	Darnytskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000336424	Desna Raion	Desnianskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000479391	Dnipro Raion	Dniprovskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000551439	Obolon Raion	Obolonskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000624772	Pechersk Raion	Pecherskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000719633	Podil Raion	Podilskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000875983	Shevchenko Raion	Sviatoshynskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000000980793	Solomianka Raion	Solomianskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA80000000001078669	Sviatoshyn Raion	Shevchenkivskyi (udK)[1]	UA80000000000093317	Kyiv (city)[4]	[2]
UA85000000000155841	Balaklava Raion	Balaklavskiy (udS)[3]	UA85000000000065278	Sevastopol (city)[4]	[2]
UA85000000000259923	Gagarin Raion	Gagarinskiy (udS)[3]	UA85000000000065278	Sevastopol (city)[4]	[2]
UA85000000000334608	Lenin Raion	Leninskiy (udS)[3]	UA85000000000065278	Sevastopol (city)[4]	[2]
UA85000000000449437	Nakhimov Raion	Nakhimovskiy (udS)[3]	UA85000000000065278	Sevastopol (city)[4]	[2]

(udK)[1] = urban district of Kyiv
[2] = https://directory.org.ua/territories/X, where “X” is the code, eg https://directory.org.ua/territories/UA80000000000093317
[3] = urban district of Sevastapol
[4] = City with special status or federal city depending on which legal framework you choose

APPENDIX 3: THIRD-LEVEL ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS OF UKRAINE

In 2020 the Ukranian Government reorganized its third-level administrative subdivisions. The list of the resultant subdivisions were codified by the “Кодифікатор адміністративно-територіальних одиниць та територій територіальних громад”, which in English is the “Codifier of administrative-territorial units and territories of territorial communities”. Each subdivision in that codifier has a unique code, known as the КАТОТТГ ID or KATOTTH ID depending on alphabet.

Each individual code can be looked up via the Ukrainian govt website at https://directory.org.ua , for example https://directory.org.ua/territories/UA01020000000022387. But we didn’t need an individual lookup, we needed a full list.

That full list of all the codes in the codifier can be found in a Ukrainian government spreadsheet which is periodically updated. That spreadsheet is known as the “kodyfikator”, and the successive versions of that spreadsheet are available here[0806c]. We took the version of 2022/03/22, which can be found here[0806d].

Each entry in that “kodyficator” are given an object category (“Категорія об’єкта”). We wanted to extract the third-level subdivisions, which have an object category of “H”. But since they didn’t cover Kyiv and Sevastopol, we also took the urban districts of Kyiv and Sevastopol, which have a code of “B”

Table: object categories for hromadas “H” and urban districst of Kyiv and Sevastopol “B”

Object category	Description	Source
“H”	territories of territorial communities (names of territorial communities) in regions, territorial communities of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea;	[0806g]
“B”	districts in cities	[0806g]

The resultant list of 1,786 subdivisions we will use looks like this:

Table: subdivisions we will use as third-level administrative divisions of Ukraine

Description		# of divisions	Object category	Source
Hromadas of Ukraine excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea	1,469		H	[0806a] [0806b]
Hromadas of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea	303		H	[0806f]
Total number of hromadas of Ukraine	1,772	1,772	H	[0806e]
Urban districts of Kyiv (1^st level code UA80000000000093317)		10	B	[0806g]
Urban districts of Sevastopol (1^st level code UA85000000000065278)		4	B	[0806g]
Total number of third-level administrative divisions		1,786

That list is too large to be included in a Word document and can be found in an accompanying Excel document.

APPENDIX 4: OPINION POLLS ON/BEFORE JUNE 2022

This is a selection of opinion polls before June 2022

Table: Opinion Polls on/before June 2022

Country	Link
EU	https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3756 or https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/ip_22_3756/IP_22_3756_EN.pdf or https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2694 or https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/api/deliverable/download/file?deliverableId=82054 or https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/api/deliverable/download/file?deliverableId=82054
EU	https://euneighbourseast.eu/news/latest-news/poll-eu-residents-still-willing-to-support-ukraine-and-its-refugees-and-to-stop-using-russian-energy/
EU	https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2694 and https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/api/deliverable/download/file?deliverableId=82054
EU	https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2772 or https://euneighbourseast.eu/news/latest-news/poll-eu-residents-still-willing-to-support-ukraine-and-its-refugees-and-to-stop-using-russian-energy/
EU	https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-06/ukraine-war-sanctions-fatigue-is-next-obstacle-against-putin
EU+GB	https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/
EU+GB	https://ecfr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine.pdf
EU+GB	“https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/16/europeans-divided-over-how-ukraine-war-should-play-out-reveals-poll and https://ecfr.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine.pdf and https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/”
EU+GB	https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/justice-for-ukraine-overshadowed-by-cost-of-living-concerns-study-shows
EU+GB	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2022/05/05/support-ukraine-strong-europe-nations-are-not-unit and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzh66rb605/EUI%20YouGov%20-%20EU%20Politics%20and%20Solidarity%20-%20Defence%202022.pdf
EU+GB+RUS+UKR	http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Ukraine-Conflict-Survey-June-2022.pdf
EU+GB+RUS+UKR	https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/06/my-new-polling-from-ukraine-russia-and-11-neighbouring-countries/
GB	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9mofxvnhr2/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20Conflict%20June%202022.pdf
GB	https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1543596090943049728
GB	https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1543596090943049728 and https://nitter.net/RedfieldWilton/status/1538525775934242816
GB	https://ukandeu.ac.uk/new-polling-the-british-publics-view-of-the-global-response-to-the-ukraine-crisis/
GB	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/20/war-ukraine-britons-continue-support-sanctions-are and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9mofxvnhr2/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20Conflict%20June%202022.pdf and https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/18/support-further-russian-sanctions-and-arms-ukraine and https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/9mofxvnhr2/YouGov%20-%20Ukraine%20Conflict%20June%202022.pdf
RUS	https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/03/for-now-russia-backs-putin-and-the-invasion-but-younger-people-are-sceptical-of-the-kremlin-line/
RUS	https://theconversation.com/russians-with-diverse-media-diet-more-likely-to-oppose-ukraine-war-184221
RUS	https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-monitoring-20223006
RUS	https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/06/10/sanctions-6/
RUS	https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/
RUS	https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/
RUS	https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-public-opinion-ukraine-invasion/
RUS+UKR	https://wapor.org/resources/ukrainian-public-opinion-2022/
RUS+UKR	https://wapor.org/wp-content/uploads/ExtremeScan-Release-7_EN.pdf
RUS+UKR	https://wapor.org/wp-content/uploads/Release-Sapiens_eng.pdf
UKR	https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/03/ukrainians-want-to-stay-and-fight-but-dont-see-russian-people-as-the-enemy-a-remarkable-poll-from-kyiv/
UKR	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/
UKR	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/trinadcatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_vneshnepoliticheskie_orientacii_18-19_iyunya_2022.html
UKR	https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_ua_1000_032022_v_press.pdf
UKR	https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_ua_international_1200_ua_062022_%D1%85____press.pdf
UKR	https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NORC_Ukraine_Poll_June_2022.pdf
UKR	https://sapiens.com.ua/en/publications
UKR	https://sapiens.com.ua/en/request
UKR	https://www.geopoll.com/resources/geopoll-ukraine-crisis-data-tracker/
UKR	https://www.iri.org/news/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-overwhelming-support-for-zelensky-confidence-in-winning-the-war-desire-for-eu-membership/
UKR	https://www.iri.org/resources/public-opinion-survey-of-residents-of-ukraine/
UKR	https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/10/ukraine-poll-majority-ukrainians-support-armed-resistance-oppose-concessions-russia-new-poll-finds/
UKR	https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-new-poll-89-of-ukrainians-reject-ceding-land-to-reach-peace-with-russia-11656504002
UKR	https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-ukrainians-think-about-the-war-russia-putin-invasion-zelensky-victory-results-approval-rating-11651868038
USA	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0puo40z38a/20220611_econtoplines_revised.pdf
USA	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1d9gl6why5/20220625_econtop_revised.pdf
USA	https://drive.google.com/file/d/1O8Rc7BO6uzNdoyDgBYAvBqiwScs9Y6uU/view and https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-inflation-outweighs-jobs-on-economic-views-prices-force-cutbacks/
USA	https://morningconsult.com/tracking-the-russia-ukraine-crisis/
USA	https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/06/Fox_June-10-13-2022_National_Cross-Tabs_June-16-Release.pdf
USA	https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/06/Fox_June-10-13-2022_National_Topline_June-16-Release.pdf
USA	https://today.yougov.com/(popup:search/ukraine;after=2022-06-01;period=custom)
USA	https://today.yougov.com/(popup:search/ukraine;after=2022-06-01;period=custom;type=surveys)
USA	https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-six-ten-favor-u-s-provide-aid-ukraine
various	https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/library/library-blog/posts/think-tank-reports-on-the-invasion-of-ukraine/
various	https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraine

APPENDIX 5: OPINION POLLS JUNE TO JULY 2022

This is a selection of opinion polls for approximately June to July 2022.

Table: Opinion Polls after June 2022

Country	Link
GB	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/v61mevh65q/Ukraine%20Wave%203%20compiled.pdf
GB	https://nitter.it/RedfieldWilton/status/1551206183050027009#m
GB	https://nitter.it/RedfieldWilton/status/1551206188339036161#m
GB	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/19/britons-tend-support-keeping-russia-sanctions-face
RUS+UKR	https://wapor.org/resources/ukrainian-public-opinion-2022/
UKR	https://ratinggroup.ua/en/
UKR	https://sapiens.com.ua/en/publications
UKR	https://www.iri.org/resources/?_country=ukraine
UKR	https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=news&page=1
UKR	https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-new-poll-89-of-ukrainians-reject-ceding-land-to-reach-peace-with-russia-11656504002 or https://www.norc.org/Research/Projects/Pages/2022-wsj-norc-ukraine-poll.aspx or https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NORC_Ukraine_Poll_June_2022.pdf or
USA	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8cs04km0bb/econtoplines.pdf
USA	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8gvsd6ko1j/20220625_econTabReport_revised.pdf
USA	https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k4maehoie4/econTabReport.pdf
USA	https://morningconsult.com/tracking-the-russia-ukraine-crisis/
USA	https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/07/Fox_July-10-13-2022_Complete_National_Cross-Tabs_July-17-Release.pdf
USA	https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/07/Fox_July-10-13-2022_Complete_National_Cross-Tabs_July-17-Release.pdf
USA	https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-voters-say-economy-bad-expect-get-worse

APPENDIX 6: PLAUSIBILITY CHECK 1: CHANGES FROM MAY 6 TO JUL 3

The first version of this article was written in July 2022. But with respect to the question “who is winning”, the figures were counter-intuitive and we needed to check whether the metric of merit has succeeded or failed. The metric said that at the time of writing (July 2022) pro-Russian forces were advancing but very slowly at the rate of ~2/1000ths per month. But the news coverage in new and old media listed the movement of pro-Russian forces with some considerable detail and drama, focusing on the massive damage in materiel and casualties both military and civilian, implying that the Russians were falling back. Was our metric of merit failing?

To find out we performed two plausibility checks. Below is the first.

As a first plausibility check the author looked at the twin cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Luhansk Raion, about half the size of the similar Newcastle and Gateshead in the UK. The 2022 Battle of Sievierodonetsk started about May 6^th and the Battle of Lysychansk ended around July 3^rd two months later, at which point Ukrainian forces ceded the field. But Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk occupy approx two hromadas, which gives us a grindingly slow occupation rate of about a third of the Sievierodonetsk Raion over two months, which is ~1/1000ths of pre-2014 Ukraine per month.

This is compatible with our rate of ~2/1000ths per month and our metric of merit has passed the first plausibility check.

APPENDIX 7: PLAUSIBILITY CHECK 2: CHANGES FROM JUN 26 TO JUL 24

To find out we performed two plausibility checks. Below is the second.

As a second plausibility check the author looked at the changes in the front line between June 26 and July 24 by taking screenshots of liveuamap.com and comparing them. Despite the reports regarding Kharkiv and west of Donetsk, the line on the map in those areas had not visibly changed. The two places which did show visible changes were around Sievierodonetsk and Kherson, and we discuss them below.

The Area Around Kherson

When examining Kherson we noted that pro-Ukrainian forces had recaptured a small amount of Kherson territory over the period, as shown below.

Table: comparison by area between June 26 2022 and July 24 2022 around Kherson

Area around Kherson Jun 26 2022	Area around Kherson Jul 24 2022

https://liveuamap.com/en/time/26.06.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/24.07.2022

Translating the screenshots above into hromadas we see this:

Table: comparison by hromada between June 26 2022 and July 24 2022 around Kherson

Hromadas around Kherson Jun 26 2022	Hromadas around Kherson Jul 24 2022

https://liveuamap.com/en/time/26.06.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/24.07.2022

So the change in territory over the period was constrained to within the hromada Stanislavska (UA6510013). So from the point of view of raions and hromadas there was no actual change.

The Area Around Sievierodonetsk

When examining Sievierodonetsk we noted that pro-Russian forces during the period had captured some territory to the west and south, and there was minor change near Svitlodars’k, as shown below.

Table: comparison by area between June 26 2022 and July 24 2022 around Sievierodonetsk

Area around Sievierodonetsk Jun 26 2022	Area around Sievierodonetsk Jul 24 2022

https://liveuamap.com/en/time/26.06.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/24.07.2022

Translating the screenshots above into hromadas we see this:

Table: comparison by hromada between June 26 2022 and July 24 2022 around Sievierodonetsk

Hromadas around Sievierodonetsk Jun 26 2022	Hromadas around Sievierodonetsk Jul 24 2022

https://liveuamap.com/en/time/26.06.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/24.07.2022

There is no change in raions and when translated into hromadas the change is surprisingly minor: only three hromadas have been entered by pro-Russian forces that did not already have them. They are Lysychanska (UA4412005), Siverska (UA1402007) and Zvanivska (UA1402003).

Conclusion

If we assume that liveuamap.com is accurate then pro-Russians have only gained three hromadas between June 26^th and July 24^th 2022. To put this in perspective pre-2014 Ukraine had approximately 1780 hromadas (2020 version), depending how you treat Kyiv and Sevastopol. So that means they gained 3/1780 = 1.6/1000ths of pre-2014 Ukraine between June 26^th and July 24^th 2022.

This is compatible with our rate of ~2/1000ths per month and our metric of merit has passed the second plausibility check.

APPENDIX 8: DISCUSSION OF AMBIGUOUS ISSUES

When writing this article certain issues were raised. Most were resolved, at least to the author’s satisfaction. But some of them could have been resolved differently, and we discuss them below.

One Article Or Two

This article should have been two: one laying down the theoretical basis for the metrics, and another applying them to the Russo-Ukraine War. But it was originally planned as something smaller which then grew as research expanded and the war progressed. Had the extent of both been known at the beginning then it could and perhaps should have been split, but it was not.

Raions Vs Hromada Vs Area Occupied

Once “area occupied” was selected as the metric of merit, a tension was created about the level of granularity. A coarse granularity such as using the second-level raions was quicker to compile and more objective as it could cope with fine movements in the battle line. But this lack of responsivity meant that it could only give a “big picture” and not capture the day-to-day changes. A finer level of granularity was attempted by using the third-level hromadas, but the leap from 150 raions to 1786 hromadas made it impossible to compile the figures in a timely manner. Greater IT skills would have enabled the use of hromadas and even down to the much finer granularity of area occupied in square kilometers, but these were not available to the author at the time. So we selected raions.

Was this correct decision? The author believes yes, as the metric absorbed minor changes and only showed significant ones, thereby giving the “big picture” required. But an insatiable public wanting day-to-day discussion of finer movements would have not have been satisfied with that.

Russian Polling

As the author wrote this article a nagging doubt emerged: how reliable was the Russian polling? The 21^st century Russian Federation is not the 20^th century Soviet Union and it has access to modern polling techniques. Nevertheless, phenomena such as differential non-response/self-selection bias and social satisficing/social response bias exist in the Western world and presumably would manifest in Putin’s Russia to a similar extent if not more so.

Apparently these phenomena do exist in Russian opinion polling, with some people selecting themselves out of polling by not responding[1208a] and those who do respond are affected by conformism, the propensity of respondents to defer to authority[1208b]. But there is also the counterargument that these phenomena also manifested before the February invasion and have not noticeably changed since,[1208b] and that the effect of international tensions, the growing pressure on Russia from Western countries, and the introduction of Western sanctions is to create a rally-round-the-flag effect, [1208b] with Russians seeking out official sources to bolster their belief and deprecating internet sources that contradict this narrative. [1208b]

So even taking into effect the different values (we chose levada.ru, wciom.ru and the extremescan trend figures) it appears that the Russian opinion polling may accurately reflect, in relative movement if not in absolute magnitude, the support of the Russian people for the war.

APPENDIX 9: DERIVATION OF AREA OCCUPIED

How did we calculate the areas occupied? It came down to two sources.

Liveuamap.com (unofficial)

We chose liveuamap.com as the source for the unofficial assessment. This was not because it was the best, and it often disagreed with other sources such as https://deepstatemap.live/ or https://www.understandingwar.org/ . But the DeepState map only went back as far as April and the UnderstandingWar source was either zoomable but archiveless or archived but unzoomable. Since the Liveuamap was zoomable and easily accessible, going back as far as February and creating its own archive as it went, we selected it.

The Liveuamap was examined for ten timepoints between February and November inclusive. Each timepoint was the first Sunday after the 24^th of each month. The selected links for each timepoint are:

Table: liveuamap.com sources for area occupied

Timepoint	Timepoint	Date link applies	Link
First Sunday after 2022-02-24	27.02.2022	27.02.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/27.02.2022
First Sunday after 2022-03-24	27.03.2022	27.03.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/27.03.2022
First Sunday after 2022-04-24	24.04.2022	24.04.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/24.04.2022
First Sunday after 2022-05-24	29.05.2022	29.05.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/29.05.2022
First Sunday after 2022-06-24	26.06.2022	26.06.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/26.06.2022
First Sunday after 2022-07-24	24.07.2022	24.07.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/24.07.2022
First Sunday after 2022-08-24	28.08.2022	28.08.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/28.08.2022
First Sunday after 2022-09-24	25.09.2022	25.09.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/25.09.2022
First Sunday after 2022-10-24	30.10.2022	30.10.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/30.10.2022
First Sunday after 2022-11-24	27.11.2022	27.11.2022	https://liveuamap.com/en/time/27.11.2022

The resultant graph fulfilled the requirements of area occupied and an expanded version covering the period to the end of July 2023 was selected for Part 10.

Minre.gov.ua (official)

The Ukrainian state has a Ministry devoted to the governance of those areas of Ukraine with pro-Russian forces present. It is called the “Ministry Of Reintegration Of Temporary Occupied Territories Of Ukraine” ( “Міністерство З Питань Реінтеграції Тимчасово Окупованих Територій України” in Ukrainian). Periodically that Ministry issues reports[1211b] and some of those reports list those oblasts/raions/hromadas are occupied by pro-Russian forces, and those reports are published online.

The reports were examined for ten timepoints between February and November inclusive. Each timepoint was the first Sunday after the 24^th of each month. The selected links for each timepoint are:

Table: zakon.rada.gov.ua sources for area occupied

Timepoint	Timepoint	Date applies	Date published	Link
First Sunday after 2022-02-24	27.02.2022	n/a	n/a
First Sunday after 2022-03-24	27.03.2022	n/a	n/a
First Sunday after 2022-04-24	24.04.2022	25.04.2022	25.04.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20220425
First Sunday after 2022-05-24	29.05.2022	27.05.2022	31.05.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20220531
First Sunday after 2022-06-24	26.06.2022	23.06.2022	29.06.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20220629
First Sunday after 2022-07-24	24.07.2022	23.07.2022	29.07.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20220729
First Sunday after 2022-08-24	28.08.2022	23.08.2022	30.08.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20220830
First Sunday after 2022-09-24	25.09.2022	23.09.2022	30.09.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20220930
First Sunday after 2022-10-24	30.10.2022	23.10.2022	04.11.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20221104
First Sunday after 2022-11-24	27.11.2022	23.11.2022	02.12.2022	https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0453-22/ed20221202

Unfortunately, when displayed as a graph it became apparent that this would not meet our requirements. To explain why, consider the graph below.

Table: graph of zakon.rada.gov.ua document z0453-22 for area occupied

Graph: number of 2^nd-level relevant areas listed in zakon.rada.gov.ua document z0453-22

· The full title is “List of territorial communities located in the area of military (combat) operations or under temporary occupation, encirclement (blockade)”: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/en/z0453-22#Text

· The unaugmented values are the raw values from the link.

· The augmented values are those with the raions added from the Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Sevastapol and Crimea to bring them in line with the pre-2014 boundaries of Ukraine

It appears that this metric does include some areas where pro-Russian forces are not present (eg encircled raions) and does not include some areas where pro-Russian are present (eg where they are just “passing thru” and not engaged). Consequently, we categorized this metric as a measure of performance (possibly a measure of effectiveness?) and included it as such in Part 6.

APPENDIX 10: THE POSITION OF MS. INNA VOLOSEVYCH

The author ran an early version of this article past the staff of “Info Sapiens”, a research agency based in Kyiv, Ukraine that specializes in research, surveys and analysis. One that replied was a Ms. Inna Volosevych. Ms. Volosevych disagreed with the use of the directional polls from ratinggroup.ua to assess Ukrainian public approval for the direction of Ukraine and preferred a more detailed approach. As the author wanted to directly compare the numbers to the Russian equivalents that option was not chosen, but the point was noted. Ms. Volosevych’s email is excerpted below

On Sunday, 6 November 2022 at 08:48:20 GMT, Inna Volosevych [email redacted] wrote:

Dear Martyn,

I will respond when I carefully read the article, but as a sociologist, I have first of all looked at the tables. It’s not relevant to take the right/wrong direction question as an indication of Ukrainian’s willingness to fight as it’s ambiguous: on the one hand, we believe we move toward victory and that’s the right direction, on the other hand, it’s weird to name war as the right direction.

You can use this data instead – the left column is the poll of September 9-11 and the right is the poll of July 21-24. If the question is about territories occupied in 2022 we would probably receive 100%

		Sep 9-11		Jul 21-24
Question	Response	Count	Col%	Count	Col%
5. When thinking about the current war with Russia, should the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue fighting until they have retaken____? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? All of Donbas (including the territories occupied before February 24 / ORDLO)	Yes, strongly	693	67,57%	696	68,38%
	Yes, somewhat	237	23,08%	220	21,57%
	No, somewhat	31	3,06%	45	4,43%
	No, strongly	15	1,44%	22	2,19%
	Difficult to answer/Refuse	50	4,85%	35	3,43%
	TOTAL	1026	100,00%	1018	100,00%


		Sep 9-11		Jul 21-24
Question	Response	Count	Col%	Count	Col%
5. When thinking about the current war with Russia, should the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue fighting until they have retaken____? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? Crimea	Yes, strongly	663	64,65%	601	59,07%
	Yes, somewhat	252	24,56%	253	24,88%
	No, somewhat	42	4,08%	85	8,34%
	No, strongly	15	1,45%	28	2,79%
	Difficult to answer/Refuse	54	5,26%	50	4,92%
	TOTAL	1026	100,00%	1018	100,00%

Question	Response	Count	Col%
8. How confident are you that Ukraine will take back all the territories Russia has occupied since February 24th?	Not confident at all	10	0,96%
	Somewhat unconfident	42	4,09%
	Somewhat confident	245	23,87%
	Very confident	710	69,23%
	Don’t know	19	1,85%
	TOTAL	1026	100,00%

Question	Response	Count	Col%
9. How confident are you that Ukraine will take back all of the territories occupied since 2014?	Not confident at all	17	1,63%
	Somewhat unconfident	102	9,93%
	Somewhat confident	316	30,77%
	Very confident	555	54,09%
	Don’t know	37	3,57%
	TOTAL	1026	100,00%

Point	Description
RESEARCH METHOD AFTER 03.22:	computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI), based on a random sample of cell phone numbers
GEOGRAPHY OF RESEARCH:	Ukraine except for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and ORDLO. From March 2022, the survey does not cover Ukrainians who have gone abroad, as well as territories occupied in 2022, where there is no Ukrainian cell communication
TARGET AUDIENCE:	the population of Ukraine over 18 years old
SCOPE OF THE SAMPLE:	1000 respondents. The maximum theoretical error does not exceed 3.1%.

APPENDIX 11: OPINION POLL FIGURES FOR RUSSIAN SUPPORT

Table: Opinion poll figures for Russian support for the special military operation

Area	Poll	Definitely yes	Probably yes	Total yes	Probably no	Definitely no	Total no	Difficult to answer	Other	Source	Date
RUS	levada.ru	48	20	68	8	15	23	9		[1127a]	2022/02/XX
RUS	levada.ru	53	28	81	8	6	14	6		[1127a]	2022/03/XX
RUS	levada.ru	45	29	74	8	11	19	7		[1127a]	2022/04/XX
RUS	levada.ru	47	30	77	8	9	17	6		[1127a]	2022/05/XX
RUS	levada.ru	47	28	75	11	9	20	5		[1127a]	2022/06/XX
RUS	levada.ru	48	28	76	10	8	18	7		[1127a]	2022/07/XX
RUS	levada.ru	46	30	76	8	9	17	7		[1127a]	2022/08/XX
RUS	levada.ru	44	28	72	11	10	21	8		[1127a]	2022/09/XX
RUS	levada.ru	44	29	73	11	9	20	8		[1127a]	2022/10/XX
RUS	levada.ru	42	32	74	11	9	20	7		[0801a]	2022/11/XX
RUS	levada.ru	41	30	71	10	11	21	8		[0801a]	2022/12/XX
RUS	levada.ru	45	30	75	10	9	19	6		[0801a]	2023/01/XX
RUS	levada.ru	48	29	77	10	7	17	6		[0801a]	2023/02/XX
RUS	levada.ru	41	31	72	11	9	20	8		[0801a]	2023/03/XX
RUS	levada.ru	43	32	75	7	9	16	9		[0801a]	2023/04/XX
RUS	levada.ru	43	33	76	10	8	18	6		[0801a]	2023/05/XX
RUS	levada.ru	40	33	73	10	9	19	8		[0801a]	2023/06/XX

RUS	wciom.ru			65			25	10		[0805a]	25/02/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			68			22	10		[0805b]	27/02/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			71			21	8		[0805c]	03/03/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			74			17	9		[0805d]	17/03/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			76			15	9		[0805e]	24/03/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			73			18	9		[1127c]	2022/03/XX
RUS	wciom.ru			72			19	9		[0805f]	12/04/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			72			20	9		[0805g]	24/04/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			73			17	10		[1127c]	2022/04/XX
RUS	wciom.ru			74			17	8		[0805h]	12/05/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			72			18	10		[0805i]	26/05/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			71			18	11		[1127c]	2022/05/XX
RUS	wciom.ru			73			19	8		[0805j]	12/06/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			72			17	11		[1127f]	25/06/2022
RUS	wciom.ru			71			18	11		[1127c]	2022/06/XX
RUS	wciom.ru			70			18	12		[1127c]	2022/07/XX
RUS	wciom.ru			70			18	12		[1127c]	2022/08/XX
RUS	wciom.ru			68			20	12		[0805k]	2023/01/XX

RUS	chronicles			59			22	19		[1127e]	04/03/2022
RUS	chronicles			53.5			30			[0809a]	04/03/2022
RUS	chronicles			63			7	17	12	[1127e]	13/03/2022
RUS	chronicles			60			10	18	12	[1127e]	30/03/2022
RUS	chronicles			66			8	16	10	[1127e]	18/04/2022
RUS	chronicles			64			9	15	12	[1127e]	19/05/2022
RUS	chronicles			55			10	18	17	[1127e]	05/07/2022
RUS	chronicles			51			12	21	16	[1127e]	22/09/2022
RUS	chronicles			54			13	20	13	[1127e]	30/09/2022
RUS	chronicles			58.5			11.3	17.5	12.7	[0809b]	09/02/2023

RUS	extremescan	46	13	59	7	16	23	13+6		[0807a]	01/03/2022
RUS	extremescan			59			22	19		[1127e]	04/03/2022
RUS	extremescan			63			7	17	12	[1127e]	13/03/2022
RUS	extremescan			60			10	18	12	[1127e]	30/03/2022
RUS	extremescan			66			8	16	10	[1127e]	18/04/2022
RUS	extremescan			64			9	15	12	[1127e]	19/05/2022
RUS	extremescan			55			10	18	17	[1127e]	05/07/2022
RUS	extremescan			51			12	21	16	[1127e]	22/09/2022
RUS	extremescan			54			13	20	13	[1127e]	30/09/2022
RUS	extremescan			57			11	33		[0807b]	16/10/2022
RUS	extremescan			59			11	30		[0807c]	09/02/2023

RUS	extremescan-trend			55			24	21		[0808a]	02/03/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			64			11	25		[0808b]	18/03/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			59			11	31		[0808c]	29/03/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			64			9	27		[0808d]	16/04/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			61			10	29		[0808e]	17/05/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			51			11	38		[0808f]	05/07/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			55			11	34		[0808g]	01/08/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			49			14	37		[0808h]	29/09/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			53			10	37		[0808i]	16/10/2022
RUS	extremescan-trend			55			12	33		[0808j]	17/02/2023
RUS	extremescan-trend			51			9	39		[0808k]	21/03/2023

APPENDIX 12: OPINION POLL FIGURES FOR UKRAINIAN SUPPORT

Table: Opinion poll figures for Ukrainian support for the direction of Ukraine

Area	Poll	Right direction	Wrong direction	Difficult to answer	Other	Source	Date
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	76	15	10		[0805a]	13/03/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	77	13	10		[0805b]	18/03/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	78	11	11		[0805c]	31/03/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	80	10	9		[0805d]	27/04/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	79	12	9		[0805e]	19/05/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	75	13	12		[1126d]	19/06/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	75	13	12		[0805f]	19/06/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	73	12	15		[1126a]	24/07/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	73	12	15		[0805g]	24/07/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	74	13	13		[1127b]	18/08/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	74	13	13		[0805h]	18/08/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	81	10	9		[0805i]	02/10/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	86	6	8		[0805j]	09/10/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	78	10	12		[0805k]	04/11/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	82	7	11		[0805l]	21/11/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	82	7	12		[0805m]	21/11/2022
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	71	13	16		[0810o]	02/06/2023
UKR	ratinggroup.ua	67	15	18		[0805n]	11/06/2023

The dip in support in [0810n] may be artefactual as it was in the “resilience”/”СТІЙКОСТІ” series, unlike the others which were in the “national survey”/”загальнонаціональне опитування” series. Nevertheless it was the latest survey in June 2023.

APPENDIX 13: OPINION POLL FIGURES FOR BRITISH SUPPORT

Table: how much does the Ukraine Conflict matter to you?

Area	Poll	A significant amount	A fair amount	A significant/fair amount	Not at all	Other	Not at all/Other	Source	Date
UK	RedfieldWilton	32	38	70	8	22	30	[1125a]	12/06/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	33	35	68	9	23	32	[1125k]	19/06/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	32	36	68	10	22	32	[1125b]	30/06/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	32	36	68	10	22	32	[1125i]	30/06/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	29	36	65	12	23	35	[1125c]	19/07/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	27	36	63	11	26	37	[1125d]	24/07/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	26	35	61	13	26	39	[1125e]	25/09/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	26	36	62	11	27	38	[1125f]	30/10/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	31	34	65	12	23	35	[1125g]	06/11/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	29	38	67	10	23	33	[1125h]	13/11/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	35	34	69	9	22	31	[1125j]	17/11/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	30	34	64	11	25	36	[0802a]	30/11/2022
UK	RedfieldWilton	30	34	64	13	23	36	[0802b]	15/02/2023
UK	RedfieldWilton	32	34	66	11	23	34	[0802c]	23/02/2023
UK	RedfieldWilton	25	32	57	16	27	43	[0802d]	01/03/2023
UK	RedfieldWilton	31	33	64	12	24	36	[0802e]	09/03/2023
UK	RedfieldWilton	26	32	58	15	27	42	[0802f]	27/04/2023
UK	RedfieldWilton	34	29	63	12	25	37	[0802g]	07/06/2023

Table: how much do you support the following options (cost not specified)

Area	Option	Poll	Strongly support	Somewhat support	Support	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose	Oppose	Neither/ Don’t know	Source	Date
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	46	23	69	5	4	9	22	[1124b]	24/02/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	58	19	77	3	3	6	17	[1124d]	28/02/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	62	16	78	4	3	7	15	[1124e]	02/03/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	56	23	79	4	3	7	15	[1124m]	15/03/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	54	22	76	5	3	8	16	[1124u]	20/06/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	48	27	75	4	5	9	17	[1124w]	29/06/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	51	24	75	5	3	8	16	[1124r]	08/09/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	49	23	72	3	4	7	13+8	[0803a]	22/09/2022
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	54	21	75	4	4	8	17	[0803b]	15/02/2023
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	54	21	75	4	4	8	17	[0803c]	22/02/2023
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	56	23	79	4	3	7	15	[0803d]	15/03/2023
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	54	21	75	4	4	8	17	[0803e]	17/04/2023
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	44	29	73	6	4	10	18	[0803f]	19/05/2023
UK	Sanctions	YouGov	54	21	75	4	4	8	17	[0803g]	02/06/2023

UK	Sanctions	Ipsos			61			12	19+8	[1124t]	22/02/2022
UK	Sanctions	Ipsos	60	19	78	3	3	6	11+5	[1124s]	02/03/2022
UK	Sanctions	Ipsos			78			6	11+5	[1124t]	02/03/2022
UK	Sanctions	Ipsos			74			9	11+6	[1124t]	05/04/2022
UK	Sanctions	Ipsos	41	29	70	4	4	8	17+6	[1124t]	20/10/2022
UK	Sanctions	Ipsos			70			8	17+6	[0803h]	20/10/2022
UK	Sanctions	Ipsos			73			9	13+5	[0803i]	22/02/2023

Table: how much do you support the following (cost specified, eg greater cost of living/energy prices)

Area	Option	Poll	Strongly support	Somewhat support	Support	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose	Oppose	Neither/Don’t know	Source	Date
UK	Sanctions vs col	YouGov	16	30	46	17	21	38	16	[1123c]	01/03/2022
UK	Sanctions vs col	YouGov	18	36	54	14	18	32	14	[1123e]	15/03/2022
UK	Sanctions vs col	YouGov	14	28	42	18	24	42	16	[1123h]	09/06/2022
UK	Sanctions vs col	YouGov	8	32	40	22	22	44	15	[1123b]	29/06/2022
UK	Sanctions vs col	YouGov	8	32	40	22	22	44	16	[1123d]	11/07/2022
UK	Sanctions vs col	YouGov	15	28	43	17	23	42	15	[1123a]	12/09/2022
UK	Sanctions vs col	YouGov	18	31	49	11	9	20	16+15	[0804a]	22/09/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	YouGov	15	27	42	16	25	41	17	[1123c]	01/03/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	YouGov	17	31	48	18	20	38	15	[1123e]	15/03/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	YouGov	13	25	38	19	26	45	17	[1123h]	09/06/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	YouGov	7	25	32	26	27	53	15	[1123b]	29/06/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	YouGov			45			41		[0804f]	04/07/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	YouGov	7	25	32	26	27	53	15	[1123d]	11/07/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	YouGov	14	26	40	15	27	42	17	[1123a]	12/09/2022

UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos			49			22	20+9	[1123f]	22/02/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos			73			8	14+5	[1123f]	02/03/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos	47	26	73	5	3	8	14+5	[1123g]	02/03/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos			66			13	15+6	[1123f]	05/04/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos			54			22	10+14	[0804b]	xx/08/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos	17	24	41	16	16	32	20+7	[1123f]	20/10/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos			52			22	13+13	[0804c]	xx/10/2022
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos			57			16	11+16	[0804d]	20/01/2023
UK	Sanctions vs energy prices	Ipsos			58			19	10+13	[0804e]	22/02/2023

* YouGov’s questions regarding support in relation to energy prices was not consistent. In March and Jun 2022 YouGov asked “significant increase in energy prices”, then just “increase in energy prices” in July, except for the Euro wave questions. This is presumably why the YouGov and Ipsos numbers differ. See https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/19/britons-tend-support-keeping-russia-sanctions-face

* “COL” = cost of living.

APPENDIX 14: SANITY CHECK

As a last minute sanity check, the graph of the metric of merit was compared visually to those prepared by the blogger “war_mapper” (see https://nitter.net/War_Mapper/). Both mine and their maps agreed that, at least in terms of land taken and regained, the war was at August 2022 stalemated

https://nitter.net/War_Mapper/status/1686417006734594048#m
https://nitter.net/War_Mapper/status/1686417004293464064#m
https://nitter.net/War_Mapper/status/1686417009183973376#m

Appendices to ‘Fatal error: Who is winning in the war between Russia and Ukraine?’?

APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES

[0622]: Theory of Victory, Turkey and Russian mobilization

[0626] Data Visualisation and Area Occupied

[0703] Peter Zeihan on Ukraine

[0704] Polling and Surveys I

[0718] Polling and Surveys II

[0719] Polling and Surveys III

[0720] Subdivisions of Ukraine I

[0727] Warfare Assessment

[0801] Polling and Surveys IV

[0802] Polling and Surveys V

[0803] Polling and Surveys VI

[0804] Polling and Surveys VII

[0805] Polling and Surveys VIII

[0806] Subdivisions of Ukraine II

[0807] Polling and Surveys IX

[0808] Polling and Surveys X

[0809] Polling and Surveys X

[0810] Polling and Surveys XI

[0811] Clausewitzian Gap and Grand Strategy Gap

[1123] Polling and Surveys XII

[1124] Polling and Surveys XIII

[1125] Polling and Surveys XIV

[1126] Polling and Surveys XV

[1127] Polling and Surveys XVI

[1127e] Polling and Surveys XVII

[1208] Polling and Surveys XVIII

[1211] UK and Ukranian Gazettes

APPENDIX 2: SECOND-LEVEL ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS OF UKRAINE

APPENDIX 3: THIRD-LEVEL ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS OF UKRAINE

APPENDIX 4: OPINION POLLS ON/BEFORE JUNE 2022

APPENDIX 5: OPINION POLLS JUNE TO JULY 2022

APPENDIX 6: PLAUSIBILITY CHECK 1: CHANGES FROM MAY 6 TO JUL 3

APPENDIX 7: PLAUSIBILITY CHECK 2: CHANGES FROM JUN 26 TO JUL 24

The Area Around Kherson

The Area Around Sievierodonetsk

Conclusion

APPENDIX 8: DISCUSSION OF AMBIGUOUS ISSUES

One Article Or Two

Raions Vs Hromada Vs Area Occupied

Russian Polling

APPENDIX 9: DERIVATION OF AREA OCCUPIED

Liveuamap.com (unofficial)

Minre.gov.ua (official)

APPENDIX 10: THE POSITION OF MS. INNA VOLOSEVYCH

APPENDIX 11: OPINION POLL FIGURES FOR RUSSIAN SUPPORT

APPENDIX 12: OPINION POLL FIGURES FOR UKRAINIAN SUPPORT

APPENDIX 13: OPINION POLL FIGURES FOR BRITISH SUPPORT

APPENDIX 14: SANITY CHECK